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The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) appears to be grappling with a sharp decline in its seat count compared to the 2020 Assembly polls
The projections indicate a substantial recovery for the NDA, powered largely by gains for the Janata Dal (United). Representational image: PTI
A mega exit poll conducted by News18 indicates that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is heading for a clear lead in the Bihar Assembly Elections, signalling a potential consolidation of support for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and its allies.
The survey suggests that the NDA is on course to improve its 2020 performance, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) appears to be losing ground across several key regions.
NDA on Course for 140-150 Seats
According to the projections, the NDA is expected to secure between 140 and 150 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly—comfortably above the halfway mark of 122. This would represent a notable recovery from its 2020 tally and position the ruling coalition for a return to power.
The JD(U) is projected to emerge as the single largest party, with 60 to 70 seats, a substantial improvement over the 43 seats it won in the last Assembly polls. This rise reflects a consolidation of the NDA vote base and a reversal of losses suffered in 2020 due to the Lok Janshakti Party’s (LJP) independent contest.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to secure 55 to 65 seats, a marginal decline from its 2020 tally of 74 seats but still maintaining its position as a dominant partner in the alliance. Smaller NDA allies—including the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM)—are together projected to win enough seats to give the coalition a comfortable majority, contributing between 10 and 20 seats.
MGB Struggles to Retain Ground
The opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Indian National Congress (INC), is projected to finish with 85 to 95 seats, a sharp drop from the 110 seats it secured in 2020.
Within the alliance, the RJD is expected to win 50 to 60 seats, down from its previous tally of 75, marking a notable decline in its statewide reach. The Congress is projected to secure 15 to 20 seats, roughly consistent with its 2020 performance of 19.
The Left parties, including the CPI(ML-L), CPI, and CPM, are expected to retain a modest presence, collectively winning 10 to 15 seats, slightly below their 2020 total. The Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), which was earlier part of the NDA, is now aligned with the MGB and may secure up to five seats.
New Entrants and Independents
The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), contesting the Bihar Assembly elections for the first time, is forecast to make a limited impact, with projections suggesting 0 to 5 seats.
Independents and smaller regional outfits are collectively expected to win 5 to 10 seats, potentially playing a minor but symbolic role in certain local contests.
A Strong Comeback for Nitish Kumar
The exit poll paints a picture of renewed voter confidence in the NDA, especially in rural constituencies and among Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), where the JD(U) has traditionally enjoyed deep support. The BJP, meanwhile, continues to hold its urban and upper-caste voter base, ensuring the coalition’s broad demographic reach.
In contrast, the MGB’s struggles appear linked to erosion in RJD’s rural strongholds, even as the party retains some advantage among younger and lower-income voters. The Congress has managed to maintain its core support but has not made significant inroads beyond its traditional base.
If these projections hold, the 2025 Bihar Assembly election could mark a decisive return to form for Nitish Kumar and the JD(U), re-establishing the NDA’s dominance in the state’s political landscape.
The overall trends suggest a shift in Bihar’s political equilibrium, with the ruling alliance likely to secure a renewed mandate, while the opposition faces the challenge of rebuilding its momentum ahead of the next electoral cycle.
Pathikrit Sen Gupta is a Senior Associate Editor with News18.com and likes to cut a long story short. He writes sporadically on Politics, Sports, Global Affairs, Space, Entertainment, And Food. He trawls X via …Read More
Pathikrit Sen Gupta is a Senior Associate Editor with News18.com and likes to cut a long story short. He writes sporadically on Politics, Sports, Global Affairs, Space, Entertainment, And Food. He trawls X via … Read More
November 11, 2025, 18:42 IST
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