On the potential impact of Novo Nordisk’s decision to cut prices for semaglutide, Mittal suggested that the broader market dynamics have already undergone significant change over the past few years.
“See, let us step back. A couple of years back, liraglutide was almost $5 billion in global sales for Novo Nordisk. Since then, it has become a $1 billion product for Novo Nordisk, and patients have moved to Ozempic and Mounjaro. So there has, of course, been a degrowth that we have already seen. But there are patients who continue to take liraglutide even today, and that is where a generic liraglutide will bring down the cost for these patients and the payers. We definitely do not expect market growth in terms of volumes, but in terms of generic penetration, it should be a fairly decent market for everyone. Today, there are very limited players in the US who have commercialised generic liraglutide, and we are very well placed and are going to launch the product very soon in the market,” he said.
While acknowledging that the product is no longer the multibillion-dollar opportunity it once was, Mittal emphasised that limited competition in the generic space still makes it attractive.
Beyond the US, Europe remains a key focus area. The company has already rolled out liraglutide in several European markets and plans to deepen its presence.
“We have already launched the product in a few markets in Europe and will continue to launch it in many more European countries in the coming quarter. Apart from the US and Europe, we think there is a big opportunity in emerging markets where we have already done the filing and our file is under review. In countries, especially tender-based markets in Latin America or the Middle East, the cost of treatment is prohibitively high for branded drugs. If a lower-cost option with a generic drug is available, we expect volumes to expand. Next year, we expect approvals from some emerging market countries, and we are very optimistic that this will become an important growth driver for us,” he noted.
In Europe, the early traction has been encouraging. The company has partnered with Zentiva for multiple markets while also going direct in select geographies such as the Netherlands.“We have launched the product in many markets through our partner Zentiva and have also taken it directly to a few markets such as the Netherlands. The Netherlands is a tender market, and we have secured a few tenders there. In just one market such as the Netherlands, we have almost 40% market share. We will be taking this product to many other markets directly. After the acquisition of the biosimilars business from Viatris, we have a strong presence in select European markets such as Germany. So far, we have seen a very encouraging uptick. In our December quarterly results, we had 24% growth in our generic segment and the majority of that growth came from the liraglutide launch in Europe,” Mittal said.
He added that several competitors who were earlier working on liraglutide have shifted their focus to semaglutide after facing regulatory hurdles, resulting in a narrower competitive field.
On whether Novo could extend price cuts for semaglutide to other markets, Mittal remained cautious.
“That is possible, and we have already seen that in India where prices have come down. There is head-to-head competition between Mounjaro and Ozempic, and that is impacting pricing decisions. But it is for Novo to comment on what action they will take in reaction to what Lilly is doing,” he said.
Looking ahead, semaglutide remains a longer-term play. The company has initiated filings in emerging markets and select developed markets.
“We started filing our semaglutide in emerging markets and markets such as Canada, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia a few quarters back. We expect the review cycle to be between 18 and 36 months. In the best case, we expect approval in 2027, followed by a launch. In India, we have received clinical trial approval for Phase III but have not yet started the trial. We are assessing whether to complete the trial or wait for approval in one of the other countries and then seek a clinical waiver,” Mittal explained.
He also clarified that India is not an immediate commercial focus, particularly after the divestment of the domestic formulations business to Eris Lifesciences two years ago.
“India is going to be a competitive market. Pricing is already quite competitive, and we do not commercialise any drug in India directly. Our focus right now is more on exports and emerging markets,” he said.
As the GLP-1 space evolves with pricing resets and shifting patient preferences, the strategy appears clear: target residual demand in legacy molecules like liraglutide while steadily building the pipeline for semaglutide in markets where timelines and pricing offer room for sustainable growth.
