As rebel forces march toward Damascus, speculation about the whereabouts of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dominates discussion both within and beyond the war-torn country. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on Sunday that Assad has left Syria via Damascus International Airport following significant territorial losses to a rapid rebel offensive.
However, this report has not been independently verified by AFP, deepening the mystery around Assad’s whereabouts as his regime faces its greatest challenge in decades.
There are also conflicting reports coming out of his alleged flights to Russia and Jordan.
Rebel gains spark reports of Assad fleeing Syria
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that President Bashar al-Assad has left Syria via Damascus International Airport, following significant territorial losses to a rapid rebel offensive. According to Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman, Assad’s departure occurred before army security forces vacated the airport.
Assad’s alleged flight sparks rumours
Reports swirling across Syria claim Assad could be in Russia or Jordan, sparking rumours of his departure amid one of the most severe challenges to the Assad family’s half-century of rule. Flight records from Damascus are being scrutinised, adding to the uncertainty. Despite official statements that the president remains in the capital, Assad has not been publicly seen, fueling further speculation.
Rebel advance threatens Assad strongholds
Rebel factions have made a rapid advance through western Syria, capturing strategic cities like Homs and Aleppo, leaving the government in control of only three provincial capitals: Damascus, Latakia, and Tartus.
The government’s “ring of steel” around Damascus has failed to prevent the collapse of major strongholds, as symbols of Assad’s regime, including statues of his father and brother, are torn down in newly captured areas.
Iranian and Hezbollah forces retreat
Assad’s allies are also retreating. Lebanese Hezbollah fighters have vacated positions around Damascus and Homs, with reports indicating some have moved to Latakia or back to Lebanon. Iran, a critical ally, has been unable to provide the same level of support as in the past due to distractions from other regional conflicts.
A sectarian divide deepens
The Syrian conflict, rooted in calls for reform, has transformed into a sectarian battle. Assad, an Alawite leader, has long positioned himself as a defender against Sunni Islamist factions. However, the rise of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rooted in al-Qaeda, has added sectarian tensions, even as these groups attempt to reassure minorities of their safety.
‘Red line’
Assad has been backed by Syrians who saw him as a bulwark against hardline Sunni Islamists, though critics accuse him of fueling sectarianism. Despite his portrayal of Syria as a secular state, the conflict deepened along sectarian lines with Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias supporting Assad and Sunni-led states like Turkey and Qatar aiding the rebels.
Iran declared Assad’s survival a “red line,” while the US failed to enforce its own against chemical weapons use. After a 2013 sarin gas attack killed hundreds, Moscow brokered the destruction of Syria’s chemical stockpile. However, further gas attacks, including one in 2017, prompted limited US retaliation. Assad has denied the state involvement.
