The Assads have ruled Syria for over half a century. On Sunday, rebel forces breached their capital and seat of power Damascus, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee and effectively ending the family’s five-decade rule over Syria.
The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led the offensive. This Islamist group, formerly tied to al-Qaida, spearheaded the assault that drove Assad from power.
Rise of the Assads
The Assad dynasty began with Alawite Hafez al-Assad‘s 1970 coup. The predominantly Sunni nation, beset by political volatility, had endured numerous coups since its independence. Hafez consolidated his authority as commander of the Syrian Air Force and minister of defence.
Alawites emerge predominant
Hafez consolidated power by promoting the Alawite minority within the military and government while exploiting existing societal divisions. This strategy created a system heavily reliant on Hafez al-Assad himself, leaving a fragile structure for his successors but ensuring his authority remained unchallenged.
The Alawite minority, comprising roughly 12-15 per cent of Syria’s pre-war population, remained the regime’s stalwart supporters. Their allegiance stemmed from enhanced opportunities under the Assads, particularly in military and security sectors.
Hafez al-Assad’s regime saw the 1982 Hama massacre of Muslim Brotherhood members, with casualties estimated between 10,000 and 40,000, ranking amongst the region’s severest crackdowns.
Transition from Hafez to Bashar al-Assad
Suppression continued after Hafez al-Assad’s son, Bashar al-Assad, took power in 2000 after his older brother’s untimely death in a car accident. Initially, some hoped for reforms, but Bashar al-Assad continued his father’s authoritarian rule. The 2011 uprising, spurred by protests and a violent government response, spiraled into a civil war.
State institutions weakened as power concentrated within Bashar’s family circle. His brother Maher, sister Bushra, and brother-in-law Asef Shawkat controlled security and military operations. Economic control fell to regime allies, particularly Bashar’s cousin Rami Makhlouf, who reportedly dominated 60% of Syria’s economy.
Drought, civil war and power control among elite cripple Syria
Despite GDP growth between 2000 and 2010, wealth remained concentrated among elites. Poverty, unemployment, and corruption increased public dissatisfaction. A severe drought in the late 2000s forced rural populations into cities.
Thirteen years after the 2011 uprising, Syria’s civil war continues. The conflict, which began with reform protests in Daraa, has caused extensive casualties and displacement. In 2024, violence intensified as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched significant offensives.
Fall of the Assads
Syrian President Bashar Assad has reportedly fled the country as opposition forces claim to have entered Damascus, according to a Syrian opposition war monitor. This advance marks the first time opposition fighters have reached the capital since 2018.
Rami Abdurrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated, “Assad took a flight from Damascus and left early Sunday.” No official confirmation from the Syrian government has been issued.
Prior to reaching Damascus, opposition fighters captured Homs, Syria’s third largest city, after government forces retreated.
The swift changes in Syria prompted neighboring countries to close border crossings. Lebanon closed all but one crossing connecting Beirut and Damascus, while Jordan also closed a border crossing with Syria.
