US President Donald Trump can feel vindicated: Germany‘s new foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said this week that the government had accepted the president’s demand to invest 5% of GDP in defense. Speaking at a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Antalya, Turkey, on Thursday, Wadephul also said Germany would support Nato’s proposal to provide 3.5% for classic military purposes and an additional 1.5% for defense-related infrastructure.It will likely only become clear how much all the members of the security alliance plan to invest at a Nato summit scheduled for the end of June in The Hague, Netherlands.Wadephul’s comments came a day after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that he wanted to transform the Bundeswehr into the “strongest conventional army in Europe.”
Germany plans historic security shift
If Germany goes ahead and increases its defense expenditure to 5% of GDP, it will be making a historic turnaround in security policy. Since the end of the Cold War, it has primarily relied on international cooperation, diplomacy, and a culture of strategic military restraint. But former Chancellor Olaf Scholz‘s Zeitenwende speech on February 27, 2022, three days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marked a turning point.Subsequently, the German government set up a special fund of €100 billion (about $112 billion) for the Bundeswehr. In 2024, regular defense spending amounted to around €90 billion, around 2.1% of GDP. An increase to 5% will require a future defense budget of over €160 billion per year. This will have enormous implications that have not yet been fully calculated, and for which the funds have yet to be raised.The Bundeswehr currently consists of around 182,000 soldiers on active duty. The defence ministry plans to raise those numbers to at least 203,000 by 2031, with some experts even speaking of 240,000 soldiers. Ongoing modernization efforts will affect all branches of the armed forces: the aim is to replace outdated tanks, aircraft, and ships, to develop digitalization, and expand command and control capabilities.The key industrial players in Germany are Rheinmetall, Airbus Defence and Space, and the Diehl Group, which are becoming increasingly geared toward exports alongside foreign partners.
France only EU state with a nuclear deterrent
France, which is the only nuclear power in the EU, has pursued a strategy of global presence and military autonomy. Around 203,000 soldiers serve in the French army. The gendarmerie and other paramilitary units boast 175,000 members, and there are also at least 26,000 reservists.Thanks to its Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and strategic submarines, the French navy also plays an important role in France’s nuclear deterrence strategy. French Rafale fighter aircraft, some of which are nuclear-capable, are intended to secure air superiority.Since President Emmanuel Macron came to power in 2017, the French defense budget has increased significantly. In a dramatic televised speech at the beginning of March, Macron spoke of the “Russian threat” affecting all countries in Europe and said France should nearly double its defense spending.France’s military budget used to be comparable to Germany’s, but it has helped to build a more powerful army, not least because the state, which has a stake in the arms industry, has always promoted it strategically.
Poland acts as bulwark on Nato’s eastern flank
For years, Poland has invested heavily in the military with the goal of developing the strongest land forces in Europe. In 2024, it allocated 4.12% of its GDP to its defense budget. The largest state on Nato’s eastern flank specifically wants to deter Russia.The Polish Land Forces and Territorial Defence Army currently comprise about 150,000 soldiers. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently said the government is working on plans for the country to expand the ranks to 500,000 troops, including reservists. At the same time, the army and air force are to be supplied with more modern equipment, including more than 600 battle tanks, which have been ordered from South Korea and the US among others, as well as HIMARS rocket artillery systems, drones and F-35 fighter jets.The Polish navy, however, is considered to be rather weak.
UK focuses on high tech
The UK is also planning to increase its defence spending to just under 2.4% of GDP. The focus will be on high tech: drones, artificial intelligence and laser systems. The Royal Navy, which has two aircraft carriers in service, and the Royal Air Force are already considered to be very modern. The government has planned to purchase dozens more F-35 fighter jets from the US.With around 140,000 active soldiers, the British Army is comparatively small. No significant increases in personnel are currently planned, in contrast to many EU countries.Last year, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the UK’s loyalty to Nato and said the country would play a “full role” in the alliance.The UK’s military equipment, particularly the nuclear weapons stored on submarines, is more dependent on US technology than that of many EU countries.
Italy has powerful air force, but army in need of reform
According to Nato, Italy allocated 1.49% to its defense budget in 2024, which means it is still well below the 2% target. Nonetheless, the country is one of Europe’s heavyweights, with 165,000 soldiers on active duty, two aircraft carriers and a powerful air force.However, Italy’s land forces are considered to be outdated and in need of reform. But this is set to change, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni saying she wants her country to have the strongest armored force in Europe. Italy has ordered more 1,000 combat and multi-purpose tanks from the German company Rheinmetall.In strategic terms, Italy is largely focused on the Mediterranean region and securing global trade routes.
Global firepower ranking unlikely to change
Despite these multibillion euro rearmament programs in Europe, little is likely to change in the global ranking of military strength, at least in the medium term.According to the 2025 Global Firepower review, the United States clearly leads and is followed by Russia, China, India, and South Korea. The UK follows in sixth place, while France is ninth. Germany is currently 11th.For its annual review, the Global Firepower platform evaluates over 60 individual factors, from numbers of tanks and naval capacities to manpower, in order to compare the military strength of nations.
