US President Donald Trump is facing the most consequential foreign policy decision of his presidency: whether to directly enter the escalating war between Israel and Iran by helping Israel destroy Iran’s heavily fortified Fordo nuclear enrichment site-an act that could scuttle nuclear talks, provoke a wider regional war, or reset Iran’s nuclear program by force.Trump has insisted a nuclear deal with Iran is still “achievable,” but also warned Tehran residents to evacuate, posting ominously on Truth Social: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
Why it matters
- As per an NYT report, Fordo, buried deep beneath a mountain, can only be reached by the US military’s 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator-nicknamed the “bunker buster”-which is delivered exclusively by B-2 stealth bombers. Israel does not possess either.
- A US strike would formally plunge America into a conflict Trump campaigned twice to avoid. It would end negotiations Iran says it’s still open to, and it would test Trump’s foreign policy instincts-balancing “America First” noninterventionism with his desire to appear tough and achieve foreign policy wins.
- Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi cautioned, “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.” He added, “It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu.”
The big picture: Tehran on edgeThe Trump administration has deployed additional military assets to the region and is now debating how much further to go. Trump cut short his G7 trip in Canada and returned to Washington, saying, “As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims Israel now has full air superiority over Tehran and declared the goal: “the elimination of the nuclear programme, the elimination of ballistic missile production capability, and the elimination of the axis of terrorism.”Israel’s airstrikes on Tehran expanded on the fifth day of escalating conflict, following Monday’s warnings for roughly 300,000 residents to evacuate before planned attacks.By Tuesday morning, people were seen leaving the city. Shops and the historic Grand Bazaar were closed. Despite this, Iranian authorities claimed “everything is under control” and said no official guidance had been issued. Zoom in: The Fordo factorSo far, Israel has not destroyed Fordo-the most resilient part of Iran’s nuclear network.Fordo is the “crux of this thing,” says Brett McGurk, who served under four presidents. Destroying it would severely set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions-but only a US bomb can do it. Military analysts agree it would take multiple precision strikes by American B-2 bombers in a coordinated mission.According to the New York Times, the Pentagon has already rehearsed this scenario extensively, concluding it requires a series of bombs “down the same hole.”
What they’re saying
- Trump: “I’m not looking for a ceasefire, we’re looking at better than a ceasefire.” The US President said he was looking for “an end, a real end, not a ceasefire,” adding that he wanted a “complete give-up” by Iran.
- Lindsey Graham (R-SC): “If diplomacy is not successful… I will urge President Trump to go all in… If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”
- Yoav Gallant, former Israeli defense minister: “The job has to be done, by Israel, by the United States.”
- Iran’s Araghchi: “If the aggression stops, it is obvious that the ground will be prepared for a return to diplomacy.”
- Michael Singh, Washington Institute: “Iran isn’t going to be able to match Israel from a military standpoint. So it’s going to look for other advantages.”
- G7 leaders released a joint statement: “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and called for “broader de-escalation.”
- China on Tuesday accused Trump of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, saying he was “pouring oil” on an already volatile situation after he warned Tehran residents to “immediately evacuate”.
- Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said: “Fanning the flames, pouring oil, making threats and mounting pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and widen the conflict. “The Chinese side calls on all relevant parties, especially countries with special influence on Israel, to shoulder their responsibilities, take immediate measures to de-escalate tensions, and prevent the conflict from expanding and spreading.”
Between the linesTrump is navigating intense political pressure-from hawkish Republicans urging action, MAGA conservatives warning against endless wars, and foreign allies demanding restraint. He appears to be calibrating a strategy that allows him to leverage military might as a threat while still preserving the illusion of diplomatic off-ramps.Tucker Carlson, once a loyal Trump surrogate, blasted any move toward direct involvement, calling the president “complicit in the act of war.” Trump snapped back: “Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”Meanwhile, populist voices like Charlie Kirk and Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene warn that deeper involvement risks alienating Trump’s grassroots support. “This will cause a massive schism in MAGA,” Kirk posted.
What Trump may do
- Sources told Reuters that Tehran had asked Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to urge Trump to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In return, Iran would show flexibility in nuclear negotiations, according to two Iranian and three regional sources.
- Diplomatic play: Push for a deal with Iran under the threat of force. Trump said, “They should talk, and they should talk immediately.”
- Military leverage: Keep the bunker-buster threat alive, potentially use it if diplomacy fails. As the only country with the means to destroy Fordo, the US holds the decisive card.
- And Trump has already shown he can say no to Israel: he blocked Netanyahu’s request to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, per AP sources.
What’s nextIf Iran halts its retaliatory missile fire and signals deeper engagement on nuclear talks, Trump may hold off. If not, he could greenlight a targeted strike on Fordo-a move that would shift the war’s momentum but escalate risks dramatically.The Iranians, according to WSJ sources, canceled planned nuclear talks with the US over the weekend but remain open to negotiations-if Washington publicly distances itself from Israeli strikes.Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, told Fox News that US forces remain “postured defensively,” but noted, “What you’re watching in real time is peace through strength and America First.”The bottom lineTrump has a stark choice: force diplomacy with the threat of war-or become the president who ordered bunker-busters into the heart of Iran. With Israel demanding more support and Tehran dangling diplomacy, the next 48 hours could decide whether Trump goes down in history as a peacemaker-or a war president.(With inputs from agencies)
