Despite years of warnings and efforts to decouple, the United States defense industrial base remains alarmingly reliant on China, the very nation it might one day have to confront in battle. A new report from data analytics firm Govini paints a sobering picture of America’s war readiness, raising the question: could the US actually sustain a conflict with China, or is it too entangled in its rival’s supply chains?The report reveals that Chinese firms supply nearly one in ten critical components for major US defense programs, including missile defense, nuclear systems, and space technology. It highlights how deeply Beijing’s industries are woven into America’s military supply chains, with particular reliance on Chinese-made parts in missile defense, and on critical minerals dominated by China’s production.
Chinese parts in US defense
According to Govini’s National Security Scorecard, released this week, Chinese firms made up 9.3% of primary contractors, known as Tier 1 suppliers, for major US defense programs across nine critical sectors in 2024. These sectors include aviation, maritime, command and control systems, nuclear, missile defense, and space.The report further noted how deeply Chinese suppliers were embedded in vital military supply chains. The missile defense sector, key to protecting the US from attack, had the highest reliance: 11.1% of Tier 1 suppliers were Chinese. Even the nuclear sector, where security stakes are at their highest, counted on Chinese suppliers for 7.8% of its components, more than any other foreign country.
‘US not prepared for war with China’
“The United States is not prepared for the war that we may have to enter if China said, ‘today is the day’,” South China Morning Post quoted Tara Dougherty, Govini’s CEO saying.While the dependence is clear, fully eliminating Chinese suppliers is not so simple. Dougherty cautioned against viewing decoupling as a silver bullet. “I’m not even sure that eradicating China from the supply chain is the right goal,” she said, adding, “I think it’s about dissecting these platforms into what’s critical and what’s not.”One area of particular concern was critical minerals, as per the report. It noted that hundreds of weapon systems, from jets to ships to missiles, depended on minerals like antimony, gallium, germanium, tungsten and tellurium. China dominates global production of these materials. In fact, Govini found that 78% of US weapon systems could be affected by Chinese export curbs on these minerals. This vulnerability was highlighted by Beijing’s recent restrictions on rare earth exports as part of its broader tech and trade tensions with Washington.
