It was a challenging week. We did see pressure to a large extent across the board. What is your take on the markets now? Do you see the indices performing in the coming week?
Rajesh Palviya: Yes, Nifty corrected by almost 1.30% this week. It has now slipped below the 20-day moving average on a weekly closing basis, which is a negative development for the near-term Nifty structure.
Looking at the put-based concentration, Nifty is currently trading below the major put base at 25,300. On the call side as well, major writers have shifted their positions to the 25,300 and 25,200 strikes. This clearly indicates that we may witness further pressure if Nifty continues to trade below the 25,300 level next week. That level will act as a significant resistance for the coming week.
Any move above 25,300 may trigger short covering. As long as Nifty trades below 25,300, the downside could extend to 25,050 or even 25,000, which are major near-term support levels. So, the broader range could be between 25,000 and 25,300. A breakout on either side will determine the next major directional move.
As for Bank Nifty, it is currently trading near its 20-day moving average support, which is placed at 56,600. If Bank Nifty breaks below this level, we could see more unwinding pressure, possibly dragging it down to 56,200. On the higher side, significant call writing has been observed at the 57,000 strike, making that a major resistance zone in the near term. A move above 57,000 could also lead to short covering in Bank Nifty.
Nifty Midcap has also slipped below the 20-day moving average, and many stocks witnessed profit booking this week. So, we may continue to see some pressure or additional profit-taking in the next two to three trading sessions.
I also want to know your trading ideas. These are challenging times – we think of buying the dips, but it’s hard to estimate how much further the market might fall. Still, what trading ideas do you suggest?
Rajesh Palviya: If we analyse sector-specific movements, the FMCG basket has performed well despite the volatility. From this space, Dabur looks promising. The stock has given a breakout on the weekly chart from a contracting triangle pattern and is now comfortably trading above the 200-day moving average. This indicates a potential reversal.On the weekly chart, Dabur has posted a higher high–higher low formation for the third consecutive week, suggesting sustained buying interest. Dabur is a buy with an upside target of ₹555, and a stop loss at ₹518.
Another stock we’re focusing on is Piramal Enterprises. This stock also looks bullish. It gave a breakout above its previous swing high from June during today’s session. Given the breakout in the near-term and short-term structures, we believe Piramal Enterprises could extend its gains. We are projecting a target of ₹1,265. The strategy would be to buy and accumulate with a stop loss at ₹1,175.
I want to draw your attention to the FMCG sector, particularly HUL. It was the star performer today, driven by news flow. From a technical perspective, does this stock have further upside potential?
Rajesh Palviya: HUL had been underperforming for the past few months. However, today’s news flow led to a breakout. On the weekly chart, there’s a breakout above a falling trendline, and the stock is now trading above the 200-day moving average.
If HUL sustains above the 2,480 zone, the rally could extend further. Short covering has already played out, and we may see the stock move toward ₹2,580. The entire FMCG basket had been consolidating for a few months, but now several stocks are showing breakouts on the near-term charts.
As discussed earlier, Dabur looks strong. Marico is also holding ground, and Godrej Consumer is showing strength in the near term. Overall, the FMCG sector seems poised for further upside, and we may see continued momentum in both Nifty FMCG and FMCG stocks. One can consider buying HUL, Dabur, and Marico—all look attractive.
Along with HUL, Glenmark Pharma also performed well today. It opened with a 9–10% jump and ended the session up around 14%, driven by the news that its arm has inked a $700 million global licensing deal. Do you think this is just a news-driven rally, or is it sustainable? Should investors consider exiting?
Rajesh Palviya: We’ve recommended this stock several times in our interactions on your channel. Today’s move marked a breakout from a rounding bottom formation on the daily and weekly charts. Given the intensity of the buying, we believe there’s more upside potential.
You might wait for some cooling off toward the ₹2,150–₹2,120 zone. If the stock dips to those levels, it would present a good re-entry opportunity. Given the breakout, we are targeting ₹2,400 for Glenmark Pharma. The strategy would be to buy and accumulate, with a stop loss at ₹2,100. Investors can hold existing positions or initiate new ones on minor dips.
