Shares in Japan fluctuated at the open while those in South Korea and Australia were flat Wednesday after the S&P 500 snapped a six-day rally. Treasuries were steady in early Asian trading after jumping the most in a month in the prior session. Oil held its biggest gain in six weeks after President Donald Trump’s reiteration that further levies on Russia remained on the table without a Ukraine truce.
US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks and Trump will make the final call on any extension. Adding an extra 90 days is one option, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
Much like the muted response to the US-EU tariff deal, the latest signs of progress with Beijing did little to shift investor mood. There are also other market-moving factors on the horizon. Those include Wednesday’s Fed decision — where policy makers are expected to keep rates on hold — and key data including Friday’s jobs report. Four tech giants will also report earnings over a two-day stretch.
“The market is getting better at pricing this behavior – that is, extension, as long as you say it’s positive development,” said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs. “Previously, this lack of development could have caused much larger negative reaction.”
The Stockholm negotiations marked the third round of US-China trade talks in less than three months. They wrapped up ahead of an Aug. 12 deadline to resolve differences during a 90-day suspension of tariffs that had threatened to cut off bilateral trade between the world’s largest economies.After news emerged that China’s delegation had indicated a 90-day extension of the two economies’ trade-war truce was agreed, Bessent said, his Chinese counterparts have “jumped the gun a little.”“While there is disappointment that nothing material was agreed, the mood seems to be constructive and optimistic about future potential deals,” said Kelvin Lam, senior China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London. “In the medium term, the extension is basically relaying the uncertainty of trade policies, and it will weigh on the Chinese economy in the second half.”
Meanwhile, Trump said that India may be hit with a tariff rate of 20% to 25% but cautioned the final levy had still not been finalized as the two countries negotiate on a trade deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
On the economic front, US consumer confidence increased as concerns eased about the outlook for the broader economy and the labor market. While job openings fell, they hovered at a level that indicates generally stable demand for workers.
“Overall, it was a mixed round of data that has done little to materially challenge the price action or macro narrative,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter, largely due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, while job growth moderated in July. The third marquee report may show underlying inflation picked up slightly in June from a month earlier.
With the Fed’s benchmark rate holding at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December, the business world is looking for any clue that officials are moving toward a rate reduction in the fall.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell could face dissent from one or more colleagues arguing it’s time for the central bank to provide more support to a slowing labor market.
“We believe the Fed wants to maintain flexibility on when to deploy further rate cuts. In our view, the Fed will remain on hold until ‘hard data’ begins to confirm the slowdown story,” said Luis Alvarado at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “The Fed will have the opportunity to cut rates later in the year if the economy slows and as long as inflation allows.”
