If Donald Trump could trademark “peace,” he would. Ahead of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement on October 10, the president is campaigning harder for Oslo’s approval than he ever did for Wisconsin’s votes. His newest pitch? A “20-point Gaza peace plan” that he claims could end one of the world’s most intractable conflicts — and win him the most coveted medal not made in Mar-a-Lago.He calls it “the greatest peace deal of all time.” The Nobel Committee is unlikely to agree.
The Gospel of Self-Nomination
Trump’s obsession with the Nobel isn’t new. He’s been demanding it since the Abraham Accords, arguing that if Barack Obama got one for “showing up,” he should get at least two for “saving the Middle East.” This year, though, his lobbying has gone full diplomatic theatre.At the UN, he declared that “everyone says I should get the Nobel Peace Prize.” Behind closed doors, his envoy Steve Witkoff has been nudging European counterparts; Marco Rubio has been reminding allies; and Pfizer’s Albert Bourla has even chimed in, praising Operation Warp Speed as Nobel-worthy. The entire MAGA machine has turned into a PR agency for peace — peace, of course, defined by Trump himself.
The Gaza Gambit
The timing of Trump’s Gaza initiative is not accidental. Days before the Nobel announcement, he unveiled a 20-point plan that supposedly guarantees ceasefire, reconstruction, and hostage release. Hamas agreed to free all captives but insisted the rest “requires negotiation” — which, in diplomatic language, means “we’ll see after the cameras leave.” For Trump, that’s enough to sell it as a historic breakthrough. For the Nobel Committee, which prefers long-term stability to press-conference theatre, it’s a tougher call.
Norway’s Nervous Breakdown
The Norwegians find themselves in an awkward spot. Their $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund recently divested from Israeli firms, triggering fury among US Republicans. Trump has already slapped 15 percent tariffs on Norwegian imports and could easily escalate if snubbed.
The Anti-Nordic Candidate
Nordic political culture prizes understatement. Trump’s entire personality is a federal crime in Norway. As Professor Hilde Restad notes, “Culturally, Trump is very much an antithesis for Norway.” In simpler terms, you don’t shout your way to a Peace Prize.Yet Trump’s logic is pure branding: keep shouting until someone mistakes the noise for applause. Even if he loses, he wins the narrative — the victim of a “rigged Nobel,” wronged by “global elites,” and vindicated by “real Americans.”
The Nomination Network
This year’s 338 nominees include journalists’ groups, Sudan’s aid volunteers, and Yulia Navalnaya. Trump’s nomination came courtesy of New York congresswoman Claudia Tenney, who has built an international support network lobbying for his win. Ukraine’s Oleksandr Merezhko also nominated him — then withdrew, saying he’d “lost trust” after Trump ignored Russia’s attacks on Kyiv.But withdrawals don’t trend on Truth Social.
Bookies, Bets, and Backchannels
Online odds place Trump third, behind Navalnaya and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms. But Nobel betting is notoriously unreliable — last year’s favourite was Navalny himself, despite posthumous awards being banned.If he loses, expect a digital onslaught. If he wins, expect a victory rally featuring the phrase “greatest Nobel in history.” Either way, Trump’s base will celebrate — because in MAGA world, perception is policy.
The Peace Prize Paradox
The Nobel Peace Prize has never been about peace alone; it’s about symbolism. When Obama won, the committee bet on hope. When Liu Xiaobo won, it bet on defiance. When Trump lobbies, he bets on intimidation. The question for the Norwegian Nobel Committee is simple: reward the world’s loudest salesman for a peace plan still in beta, or uphold its century-old ideal of moral independence. If Trump doesn’t win, he’ll call it fake. If he does, he’ll call it destiny. Either way, come October 10, Oslo will once again prove Alfred Nobel’s greatest invention wasn’t dynamite. It was irony.
