Mark Carney‘s Liberal Party has won Canada’s federal election, fueled by voter backlash against US President Donald Trump’s trade war.
The campaign centered on Trump’s tariffs and threats to Canadian sovereignty, with Carney pledging a fresh direction in a world reshaped by a more hostile US stance on free trade.
“We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,” said Carney, after his electoral victory in Canada, which secured another term for his Liberal Party’s governance.
“We will win this trade war and build the strongest economy in the G7,” he added. It’s still uncertain whether the Liberal Party, in power for nearly a decade, will secure a majority as results continue to come in.
1. Trump’s trade war shifted the campaign focus: The US president’s tariff threats emerged as the central campaign issue. His remarks challenging Canada’s autonomy significantly influenced the election, elevating leadership and economic survival as crucial concerns.
Mark Carney strategically campaigned against Trump alongside his Conservative opponent, Pierre Poilievre. He consistently emphasised that “Trump wants to break us so America can own us”.
Whilst Poilievre concentrated on domestic concerns like living costs, housing affordability and crime, criticising the Liberal government’s performance.
Carney, who has stated the previous US relationship is “over”, intends to begin discussions on fresh economic and security arrangements post-election.
2. Carney’s remarkable rise to power: A remarkable political entrance for Carney, who transitioned from central banking to become Prime Minister without prior elected experience. After winning the Liberal leadership in mid-March, he secured both his Ottawa constituency and led his party an unexpected triumph.
Having previously contemplated entering politics, Carney capitalised on the opportunity presented by Justin Trudeau’s January departure.
Trump’s automobile tariff announcement in late March provided Carney an opportunity to demonstrate leadership during the campaign. He temporarily suspended campaigning to fulfil prime ministerial duties, engaging with the US president and meeting American cabinet officials.
3. Conservative progress falls short: Despite achieving 41.7% of votes and increasing their seats to 149 from 120, the Conservatives’ performance proved insufficient. The progressive electorate’s support for the Liberals prevented a Conservative victory, despite their improved numbers surpassing their 2011 majority win of 39.6%.
Poilievre acknowledged this in his concession speech, stating: “We have much to celebrate tonight” whilst noting they “didn’t quite get over the finish line”.
The party must now evaluate its leadership direction, with Poilievre advocating for continuity, telling supporters that “change takes time”.
4. Decline of minor parties: The election witnessed a consolidation of votes towards the two major parties, significantly impacting smaller political entities. The New Democratic Party (NDP) experienced a substantial decline, securing only 5% of votes nationwide, down from 18% in 2021.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, following his defeat in British Columbia and subsequent resignation, acknowledged the disappointing results. The Green Party also experienced diminished support, halving from 2% to 1%. These smaller parties maintain parliamentary significance, with both the NDP and the Bloc having previously served as Official Opposition.
5. Regional divisions exposed: The electoral outcome has revealed deep regional fractures across Canada, presenting potential governance hurdles for Carney. The Liberal Party’s notable absence in Alberta and Saskatchewan, provinces rich in oil and gas resources, reflects ongoing tensions with Ottawa’s central authority.
Prior to the elections, concerns about national unity emerged from these regions following another Liberal victory. In his acceptance speech, Carney addressed these divisions, stating “I intend to govern for all Canadians” while also acknowledging the substantial opposition votes.
Poilievre’s campaign, centred on economic concerns and housing accessibility, gained significant traction among younger voters. Abacus Data poll revealed generational differences regarding Trump concerns: 18% among 18-29 year olds versus 45% for those over 60.
