Two cruise ships are bobbing quietly in the specially expanded port near the city of Belem in northern Brazil on the edge of the Amazon. They will serve as alternative accommodation for more than 10,000 participants at this year’s climate conference. Between 40,000 and 50,000 people, including heads of state and government from almost 200 countries, are expected to attend the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, to discuss measures for greater climate protection. From converted strip clubs to multi-story steamboats, Belem had to get creative with accommodation due to a lack of available rooms and high prices. Belem is a symbolic choice of location for the summit due to its proximity to the Amazon, a region that is vital for both the regional and global climate — even as forest fires, droughts, and changing rainy seasons take their toll — and where local communities are on the frontline of a deforestation crisis. The region is also one of the poorest in Brazil. Extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and severe due to rising temperatures associated with the burning of oil, gas and coal, have bigger impacts on low-income communities in the country, but also worldwide. Implementing climate mitigation and emission reductionsSpeaking ahead of the negotiations, Brazil’s President Lula has labeled the event a “conference of truth,” referencing the need to face the reality of climate change and need for action. Similarly, the host nation has called it a “conference of implementation.” This has definitely been lacking in recent years, with no single country currently doing enough to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) — the limit the world agreed to strive for under the Paris Agreement of 2015. Climate change adaptation is set to be a key theme in Belem. As economies, ecosystems and communities begin to endure more frequent and severe climate impacts, there is a pressing need to mitigate these consequences. Poorer and developing countries, many of which are very vulnerable to the consequences of increasing temperatures, are demanding significantly more financial support from rich countries that have contributed more to heating the planet. The 1.5 C target for climate protection does not yet extend to adaptation, and vulnerable countries want to agree on indicators that will rate the success of adaptation measures. There is also the key question of country commitments to reducing planet-heating emissions. All Parties to the Paris Agreement should have submitted new climate targets in September. But by November, according to COP President Andre Correa do Lago, fewer than 70 countries had submitted new targets. “We are frustrated,” said Do Lago. “Two deadlines have already passed without countries fulfilling their commitments. That is annoying.” Brazil’s chance to lead amid uncertaintyFor Brazil under President Lula, the conference is a top priority as it showcases the nation’s ability to couple sustainable development with economic progress and take a leading role on the world stage. Global uncertainty related to increasing trade conflicts, the war in Ukraine, and the situation in Gaza has unduly impacted multilateral climate policy. Meanwhile, the US, the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, withdrew from the Paris climate agreement when Donald Trump took office and has since rolled back climate protections. Observers view upcoming negotiations with concern“It is important to have a host for the negotiations who inspires confidence in all countries,” says Niklas Höhne of Climate Action Tracker — a consortium of German and international think tanks that examine how national climate targets are being implemented. At the start of the conference, Brazil will present an initiative to protect tropical forests, which are particularly important for climate regulation and biodiversity: the Tropical Forest Forever Facility.This involves a new fund that will be established with government money and topped up by private investors. Countries that take special measures to protect their forests will be rewarded with profits from the fund. At least 20% of the payments are earmarked for Indigenous communities. The goal is to raise a total of US$125 billion (€108 billion) for the fund. The initiative is a prestige project for host Brazil, though it remains to be seen how much of this total can be raised during the negotiations in Belem. Why Germany is slowing its ambitionGermany will miss its target to become climate neutral by 2045 based on current projections. The government wants to further expand fossil gas infrastructure and is weakening its commitment to renewable energies. This is not only worrying for Germany, but also for the EU, Niklas Höhne explained. “Germany is an extremely important player in the EU and is also working to relax climate protection measures in the EU,” he said. “That in turn has an impact on a global level. If the EU doesn’t take the lead, who will?” As major economies like Germany lose climate ambition, China is increasingly taking on a pioneering role, according to Jan Kowalzig, climate expert at the global NGO Oxfam. However, he doubts that China will make an effort to encourage others to be more ambitious. “In the past, China has been more concerned with protecting its national interests than with advancing collective progress on climate protection,” Kowalzig said. Mohamed Adow of the non-governmental organization, Power Shift Africa, says what is needed most from Belem is “concrete ambitions, concrete technology transfer, not the usual platitudes.”
