A sharp, unprecedented increase in visa and permit refusals across all temporary entry categories is rocking Canada’s immigration system. According to immigration experts, this is prompting widespread concerns that automated tools and policy shifts are replacing fair, case-by-case human assessment. The crisis is driving a surge in judicial reviews, as applicants seek recourse in the federal court of Canada against decisions deemed ‘generic and unreasonable’.Canadian immigration lawyer Pushkar Prehar, of Greenberg Hameed PC, confirms a “sharp increase in refusals across all temporary entry categories,” including visitor visas (TRVs), work permits, study permits, and startup visa work permit applications.Kubeir Kamal, a regulated Canadian immigration consultant (RCIC) described the situation as a “seismic shift,” noting that the overall refusal rate for temporary resident applications has “soared, crossing the 50% mark in recent periods”.Several immigration experts attribute this crisis to the growing use of automated processing tools, particularly the implementation of systems like Chinook. Many refusal letters are described as reading like “generic templates”.Kamal points out that the resulting Officer’s Decision Notes (ODNs) often contain “generic phrasing such as ‘I am not satisfied that the applicant will leave Canada at the end of their authorized stay,’ without any meaningful reference to the applicant’s unique circumstances”.A policy move by Ottawa to “reduce the share of temporary residents” is also a key driver, which has tightened assessments, leading many refusals to hinge on concerns about the applicant’s intent to leave Canada, added Prehar.This is reflected in declining numbers. According to the latest data released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), between January and August 2025, approximately 278,900 fewer individuals arrived compared to the same period in 2024. The most significant decrease was observed among international students. New study permit holders fell by 132,505 during the first eight months of 2025, marking a nearly 60% drop from the previous year. In August 2025 alone, 45,380 new study permits were issued, a sharp contrast to the 79,795 issued in August 2024
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Similarly, the number of new temporary foreign workers decreased by 146,395 between January and August 2025. In August 2025, 16,890 new work permits were issued, compared to 26,075 in August 2024.In the coming days, IRCC will publish the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan – the levels for temporary residents is expected to be further reduced..
Unfair refusal? What next….
“For applicants who have received a generic or unfair refusal, there are two primary routes, but the first crucial step is obtaining clarity on the decision itself. The immediate first step should be to obtain the full Global Case Management System (GCMS) notes notes) to understand how the decision was truly reached. Sometimes, the underlying notes offer more context—but increasingly, we’re seeing that even GCMS entries mirror the same templated language found in the ODNs,” said Kamal.Reconsideration or judicial review are the options open to applicants. Kamal stated: “While an application for reconsideration is a widely common option, it does not always work, unless there is a clear error in following the legal policy, fact or law by the officer. The officer is not even obligated to respond to a reconsideration request.”“If the GCMS notes reveal evidence of procedural unfairness or that the decision was unreasonable—for instance, where an officer ignored key evidence or made assumptions unsupported by facts—a judicial review in the federal court of Canada is a legitimate and often necessary next step,” he added.
Court filings skyrocket
The surge in refusals is directly fuelling a dramatic increase in filings at the federal court for judicial review. The federal court of Canada is on pace to record 36,400 immigration filings in 2025 (with refugee cases constituting a minimal share). This is a 47% increase over the previous year and a massive leap from 7,782 in 2019. This trend underscores the “growing need for judicial oversight in the face of erroneous decisions” said Prehar.He explained, “The court checks if the decision was reasonable; if not, the court sets aside the decision and remits the matter to a different officer for a fresh decision.”“Judicial Reviews have two steps: Apply for leave to challenge the decision; if granted, an oral hearing is scheduled. Many judicial reviews are resolved early – often when the immigration department acknowledges that the refusal was based on templated reasons; others proceed to a hearing, where a judge may set the decision aside and remit the matter,” said Prehar.He illustrates a case where an Indian student was denied her study permit application. The officer’s reasoning, contained in the GCMS notes, was that they were “not satisfied” the applicant would benefit from the Post-Baccalaureate Diploma in Finance, given her master’s degree and extensive work experience in the same field.”The officer raised concerns about her ‘intended purpose in Canada’. However, the federal court held the officer’s decision to be unreasonable, the matter was sent for redetermination by another officer.
