Interest rates are now “within the range of estimates of neutral,” the level that will neither encourage nor discourage investment and spending, Barkin said.
“Going forward, policy will require finely tuned judgments balancing progress on each side of our mandate.” “No one wants the labor market to deteriorate much further,” he said. “With inflation above target now for almost five years, no one wants higher inflation expectations to get embedded. It’s a delicate balance.”
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at its December meeting, but officials indicated they were likely to pause further reductions for now to get a better sense of the economy’s direction, a process still hampered by the interruption of government statistical reports during last fall’s government shutdown.
Barkin said it was clear the economy remained resilient, defying expectations of major disruptions to growth due to shifts in trade and immigration policy. But the country enters the year with both downside and upside risks.
On the downside, Barkin noted that recent job growth and demand have been “narrow,” driven by a small set of industries like health care, and in the case of demand sustained by the artificial intelligence boom and spending by higher-income consumers.
On the upside, Barkin, who is not a voter on rate policy this year, said the economy benefits from underlying strength, with uncertainty expected to lift this year and stimulus coming through recent tax and regulatory changes and the influence of Fed rate cuts over the past 16 months.
“Resilience has been enabled by strong underlying dynamics. Consumers have jobs. Real wages are increasing. Asset values keep growing. Corporate earnings and earnings outlooks remain strong,” Barkin said. “In those circumstances, it’s hard to imagine consumers and businesses moving to the sidelines.”
