Germany’s conservative leader Friedrich Merz is projected to win the national election, according to exit polls. The results indicate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on track for its strongest showing since World War II, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) are expected to finish in third place.
Merz’s centre-right Union bloc (CDU/CSU) has secured 211 seats with 29% of the vote, ensuring a strong position in the Bundestag. If confirmed, he is set to replace Scholz as chancellor.
The Social Democrats have won 116 seats with 16% of the vote, marking their worst postwar result, as per the exit polls. The AfD, with 142 seats and 19.5% support, has significantly improved on its 2017 result but remains politically isolated, with mainstream parties refusing to cooperate with it. Meanwhile, the Greens, led by Robert Habeck, have secured 98 seats with 13.5% of the vote.
The election comes amid growing discontent over economic stagnation, migration concerns, and uncertainty over Germany’s role in Europe and its alliance with the United States. With the opposition consistently leading in the polls, the outcome signals a potential change in government after Scholz’s coalition collapsed last year following internal disputes.
The election, held earlier than scheduled due to the collapse of Scholz’s three-party coalition, will be followed by complex negotiations to form a new government.
Merz has pledged to restore stability, but it remains uncertain whether he can establish a two-party coalition or will require a third partner. Possible allies include the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats, who are struggling to secure parliamentary representation.
Key issues in the election included Germany’s sluggish economy, which has contracted for two consecutive years, and migration, which dominated the final weeks of the campaign.
Merz has promised stricter border controls and an increase in deportations. Additionally, the next government will need to address ongoing military funding commitments to Nato as tensions rise in global security.
