Gold’s record-setting rally and persistent weakness in crude have been two of the standout features of global commodities this year. Goldman Sachs Group reckons both those trends will go into 2026.
Bullion is set to hit a fresh record next year, while oil will be burdened by a surplus, analysts including Daan Struyven and Samantha Dart said in a Dec. 18 note that set out the bank’s main picks in raw materials. The base case for gold is a rally to $4,900 an ounce, with risks to the upside.
Commodities as a whole are on course for a modest advance this year, but the sector’s climb masks huge variations in the underlying performances of heavyweight materials. While gold has risen on central-bank buying, interest-rate cuts from the Fed, and inflows to ETFs, crude has been hurt by widespread concerns about a huge glut.
Falling US interest rates have led ETF investors “to start competing for limited bullion with central banks,” the analysts wrote. “We expect the same two drivers — structurally high centralbank demand and cyclical support from Fed cuts—to lift the gold price further.”
By contrast, oil faces downside risks, they wrote. “Barring large supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts, lower oil prices in 2026 will likely be required to rebalance the market,” they said. “We expect the 2026 surplus to lead to an acceleration in OECD commercial stocks builds.”
