India’s cut and polished diamond (CPD) industry is set for another challenging fiscal year, with the recent report ICRA projecting a 7-10 per cent decline in exports in FY2026, following a 17% contraction in FY2025, weighed down by weak global demand and increasing competition from lab-grown diamonds (LGDs), the sector’s outlook remains negative.
The report by ICRA indicates CPD exports fell to a 20-year low of USD 13.3 billion in FY2025, impacted by a global macroeconomic slowdown and a growing consumer preference for cheaper, ethically sourced LGDs. These now constitute 8% of polished diamond exports, up from just 1% in FY2019.
Additionally, the recent imposition of a 27 per cent reciprocal tariff by the US, a key market accounting for over a third of India’s CPD exports, adds further pressure. Although currently paused with a 10 per cent interim tariff, exporters remain wary. Many are rerouting shipments through low-tariff hubs like Dubai and Belgium to mitigatethe impact.
ICRA’s report also highlights that operating profit margins for CPD firms fell by 400 basis points in FY2025 to approx. 4 per cent, with ICRA predicting a further dip to 3.6-3.7 per cent in FY2026. The working capital cycle also remains stretched, burdened by high inventory amid declining sales and cautious rough diamond procurement.
Meanwhile, prices for both rough and polished diamonds have dropped sharply, by 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively in FY2025, while production cuts from miners like De Beers are expected to keep rough prices range-bound.
Despite minor optimism for a recovery in bridal jewellery demand in the US in H2 FY2026, sustained weakness in Chinese demand and intensifying LGD competition continue to cloud the outlook. The CPD industry may need to adapt more aggressively to shifting consumer trends and tariff realignments to regain momentum.
On the bottom line, ICRA says the credit profile of Indian CPD entities is expected to remain weak in FY2026, characterised by modest earnings and a continued stretched working cycle.
