New York City is gearing up to elect its next mayor on Tuesday, November 4, 2025. The race enters its final stretch with Zohran Kwame Mamdani, a democratic socialist, emerging as the front-runner for the city’s top political post.As the polls close today, a new poll reveals a growing concern: nearly a million New Yorkers are considering leaving the city if Mamdani secures the mayor’s office. The poll suggests that this could spark a historic exodus, one that may have profound economic repercussions for the city in the years to come.
Potential exodus: A major economic concern
A recent poll conducted by J.L. Partners for the Daily Mail has painted a dire picture for New York City if Mamdani, the 34-year-old assemblyman, takes the reins as mayor. Nine percent of city residents, approximately 765,000 people, have indicated they would “definitely” leave New York City under a Mamdani administration. This number, though alarming, is just the beginning of the potential migration, as another 2.12 million residents (around 25% of the population) have said they would “consider” leaving if Mamdani wins.
The significance of this potential shift cannot be overstated. An exodus of this scale would be catastrophic, both socially and economically, threatening to reshape the city’s landscape. In comparison, this mass departure would be roughly equivalent to the entire population of Washington, D.C., Seattle, or Las Vegas fleeing at once. Polling indicates that this sentiment is strongest among high earners, with 7% of individuals earning over $250,000 annually stating they would definitely leave, underscoring the economic class that could be most affected. The migration of the city’s wealthiest residents could severely undermine New York’s tax base, which is heavily dependent on the top 1% of earners. These residents contribute significantly to the city’s income taxes, and their departure could cripple the city’s finances, reducing the funds available for the mayor’s proposed policies, which include subsidizing portions of the economy and expanding welfare programmes.
The impact of Mamdani’s ‘tax the rich’ rhetoric
Mamdani’s tax policies, which advocate for increased taxation of the wealthy, have long been a cornerstone of his campaign. His promise to “tax the rich” has resonated with many of his supporters, but the reality of such policies has sparked fear among wealthier New Yorkers, particularly those whose financial stability may be compromised. As a result, the growing concerns about the impact of such policies are reflected in the poll results, which show widespread unease. Among voters aged 50 to 64, the group most likely to hold significant wealth, 12% stated they would definitely leave, with 33% considering it. Racially, 13% of white residents and 11% of Asian residents in New York also expressed similar concerns. Geographically, Staten Island stands out, with 21% of voters saying they would leave, followed by Manhattan (6%) and Brooklyn (8%). These areas also exhibit high rates of uncertainty, as a large proportion of residents are considering fleeing.Polling shows strong support for Mamdani, with the candidate holding a 6.6-point lead over his nearest rival, former governor Andrew Cuomo. Early voting figures from Sunday indicate that 735,317 New Yorkers have already cast their ballots, pointing to a high turnout. A new AtlasIntel poll released on Saturday puts Mamdani at 40.6%, followed by Cuomo at 34% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24.1%. The latest RealClearPolitics average still places Mamdani comfortably ahead by 14.5 points, suggesting that his victory is increasingly likely.His campaign has gained further momentum through endorsements from key political figures, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders. He has also received private praise from former President Barack Obama, who, according to the New York Times, called his campaign “impressive.” However, Obama stopped short of offering a formal endorsement. These endorsements have added credibility to Mamdani’s platform, but his policies, particularly his proposals to “tax the rich”—have sparked significant concern among wealthy New Yorkers, many of whom are already contemplating a move out of the city.
The economic fallout
The prospect of mass migration is not just a political concern; it carries real economic consequences. As pollster James Johnson of J.L. Partners warned, if even a fraction of those considering leaving follow through, the economic repercussions would be seismic. “If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be devastating,” he said, noting that the departure of such a large portion of New York’s population, especially the wealthiest, would result in a sharp decline in revenue for the city. The departure of high earners would also have cascading effects on New York’s real estate market, which has already shown signs of instability in recent years. A loss of affluent residents could lower property values, reduce demand for luxury housing, and shrink the city’s broader economy, making it harder to fund vital city services and programmes. Meanwhile, alternative states such as the Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee have emerged as top destinations for those considering a move. These states are attractive due to their lower taxes and more affordable living conditions, which are becoming increasingly appealing to New York’s high earners.
A divided city: What will Mamdani’s victory mean?
While Mamdani’s potential victory has garnered support from progressive circles and younger voters seeking more affordable living conditions, a majority of New Yorkers fear the consequences of his leadership. The poll revealed a striking divide in public sentiment. Among those not supporting Mamdani, respondents have described what they believe his New York would look like, using words such as “disaster,” “hell,” and, more bluntly, “a sh–hole.“ For those who do support him, Mamdani’s policies represent hope and progress. His campaign is framed around a vision of a more affordable, equitable city where wealth is more fairly distributed. However, these idealistic promises may be met with stark realities if the city experiences the anticipated exodus of its wealthiest residents.
