In a matter of days, the world seems to have changed dramatically because of Anthropic’s recent AI update. How disruptive could this become?
The global AI ecosystem outside China is being driven by large US tech firms. Hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google provide cloud and computing capacity, supported by chipmakers like Nvidia and major data centre infrastructure. But the real transformation will come only when companies rebuild their processes end-to-end to integrate these tools. AI will make interactions more natural, reduce the need for coding expertise, and eventually reshape core functions such as customer service, fraud detection and wealth advisory. For this to work, companies must overhaul decades-old systems – a difficult and slow process.
What about the doomsday forecast?
No. We are far from that. Much of the work in large, traditional companies still depends on existing systems, and they continue to own customer relationships and products. The employment challenge is more relevant in certain functions, but AI can free up capacity which means existing people can do other things better. Companies are operating on technology infrastructure that is 30-40 years old, and there is a lot to fix. So I don’t see a doomsday scenario.
Apart from AI, we have geopolitical tensions and supply-chain realignments…
The world today resembles the 1970s-80s. The era of hyper-globalisation from 1990 to 2020 is over. Covid broke supply-chain trust, forcing large countries to secure medical supplies, drugs and other essentials domestically, while smaller countries aligned with bigger nations for vaccine access. We now see greater trade friction and a shift from global agreements to bilateral ones, including India’s deal with the European Union. Major economies, including India, are securing their own supply chains, especially for critical inputs like rare earths.
Will the dollar’s supremacy change?
The dollar will retain its supremacy as the world’s reserve currency for a long time. The US remains the hub of global trade and is a large manufacturing, services and digital economy. Key global commodities – oil, gold – are priced in dollars, giving it enormous standing. About 80% of all foreign-exchange trades have the dollar on one side. Reserve-currency status requires economic strength and trust, and replacing the dollar will be very hard.
Where does India fit into the scheme of things for Barclays?
We are headquartered in the UK but have a substantial presence in the US. India is our second-largest employee base with 30,000 people out of 90,000, so it’s very clear where we’re making our bets. India is a very important part of our global strategy and serves as the hub from which we run our Asian operations, including Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan. That reflects our long-term view on India. It was true before an Indian CEO, and I hope it remains true after, because it’s driven by economic logic, not anything else.
What will change after India’s trade deals with the EU and US?
Indian companies will continue expanding in the UK, US and Europe, and we help them do that – whether financing acquisitions, finding partners or identifying targets. After the India-US trade deal, we expect more FDI from US companies, and we support them in entering the Indian market. We do not intend to enter retail banking in India, but we have a private banking business and remain a strong partner to Indian firms expanding into the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
What are the strengths of the Indian market?
Barclays has a significant presence in only a few emerging markets, and India is one of them. A long period of political stability and strong economic growth has made India a very different prospect in 2026 versus 2010, compared to traditional emerging markets. There have been ups and downs in Argentina, and some of the bigger emerging markets. But India has held out. India is different from China. That’s why it’s a category of its own.
India may be a growth story, but do you think it’s not easy to do business here?
India’s operating environment has improved with world-class digital infrastructure – digital ID, seamless payments and modern commerce – and steady liberalisation of the financial and economic system. GST and tax rationalisation have strengthened efficiency. But India still needs a deeper domestic capital market that matches its scale, with more corporate credit flowing into insurance, securitisation and fixed-income markets. Improving ease of doing business – labour laws, PF rules, approvals – helps our clients and therefore us. The market which has done well in spite of the problems is real estate. It has done well because of scarcity of land, not because of transparency. Not because of the cleanness of title and ability to, correct rents or evict and so on. Those things are still weak. And if those were freed up, it would do even better.
From your vantage point, is there something you worry about?
Two things. First, the credit cycle: it has been long, and borrowing costs were low. A shock could unsettle it. Second, the implications of AI: how to use this technology to transform our business and deliver better products faster. We don’t want to be surprised again the way big banks were by fintechs. We run a risk-managed company with clear visibility of exposures and limits. I hope we are equipped to absorb a severe fall in asset prices, but when shocks happen, they come in ways you cannot predict – and they test you.
How will the era of higher interest rates affect global markets?
Two major forces kept inflation low over the last 30 years: global supply-chain shifts, especially manufacturing moving to China, and generally low interest rates that allowed companies to borrow and grow without triggering inflation. Now the impact will show up in credit. Borrowers who relied on cheap funding could face rising default risks. If I had to worry about something, it would be that changes in interest rates and weaker economic growth will pressure companies, weaken corporate balance sheets, and create risks in financial markets.
Is the private-equity model under strain?
The core PE model of buy, fix and sell still works, but firms are struggling to sell companies at expected valuations. IPO markets have slowed, and strategic or PE-to-PE sales have become harder. The rise of continuation funds signals pressure in the model. Large players remain resilient, but prolonged stress will make raising new capital more difficult.
How do you view the continued strength of China despite sanctions?
China’s 35-year growth story is nothing short of a miracle. Its trade surplus remains strong partly because global tariff adjustments take time, and partly because domestic demand is weakening, pushing more exports. These challenges do not take away from China’s broader economic achievements.
