NEW DELHI: More than 150,000 people have been evacuated from villages in Pakistan’s Punjab province after India released water from overflowing dams into cross-border rivers, triggering fears of “very high to exceptionally high” flooding across the region, officials said on Tuesday.The mass evacuations, confirmed by Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), come amid weeks of torrential monsoon rains that have battered both countries, killing more than 800 people in Pakistan and at least 65 in Indian-administered Kashmir since late June.Authorities said evacuations were continuing in low-lying districts along the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers, with the army assisting in rescue operations. Relief camps have been set up to house those displaced.
Rising waters and India’s dam releases
According to Reuters, Pakistan’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority warned that India had opened all the gates of the Thein Dam on the Ravi River, while also preparing to release water from the Madhopur Dam. Satellite imagery showed Thein Dam was 97% full, raising fears of imminent discharges.“The flood situation is grave. The next 48 hours will be critical,” said Irfan Ali Kathia, a senior official in Punjab province.Indian officials, speaking to Reuters, said the warnings were shared with Islamabad on “humanitarian grounds” due to intense rains on their side of the border. New Delhi confirmed that most rivers and streams in Jammu and Kashmir were already overflowing, damaging roads, bridges and inundating homes.Evacuations began on Friday after Islamabad received India’s second warning in as many days. The NDMA said around 35,000 people had left voluntarily since August 14, while the rest were forced to move after flood alerts were issued.Deputy commissioner Saba Asghar Ali, after visiting Pasrur city near the Indian border, said 16 villages were at immediate risk. “Arrangements for food, medicines, washrooms, and other necessities have been made in relief camps,” she told reporters.Pakistan’s irrigation minister Kazim Raza Pirzada said climate change was intensifying rainfall in eastern rivers. “Due to climate change, eastern rivers are experiencing heavier rainfall compared to the past,” he noted.
Cross-border flooding fears and strained ties
The Associated Press reported that New Delhi had alerted Islamabad of possible flooding through diplomatic channels on Monday, marking the first direct public contact between the two rivals in months. The information was not conveyed through the Indus Waters Commission — the permanent mechanism created under the World Bank-brokered 1960 Indus Waters Treaty — as India suspended the arrangement earlier this year following a deadly militant attack in Kashmir.Pakistan insists India cannot unilaterally scrap the treaty, which had survived two wars and multiple border conflicts. The suspension, however, has come amid deteriorating ties between the nuclear-armed nations.Analysts fear any damage blamed on India’s dam releases could inflame already tense relations, especially after May’s brief but intense border conflict, the worst fighting in decades. The clash triggered tit-for-tat missile strikes that only ended after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. Since then, ties have remained frozen.
Climate, monsoon and humanitarian crisis
Pakistan’s current flood alert is compounded by relentless seasonal rains. Since late June, over 800 people have died nationwide, half of them in August alone, according to Reuters. In the north, Gilgit Baltistan has seen accelerated glacial melting, while the southern port city of Karachi was partly submerged last week.In the northwest, AP reported, flash floods in Buner district earlier this month killed more than 300 people. Residents complained they had no warning before the deluge struck, but officials said it was caused by an unpredictable cloudburst.In Indian-administered Kashmir, authorities confirmed at least 68 flood-related deaths this month. The Indian Meteorological Department forecast heavy rains to persist through late Tuesday, raising the possibility of further devastation.The region remains haunted by memories of 2014, when Kashmir witnessed its worst monsoon floods in a century, killing nearly 500 people across both sides of the divided territory.Scientists and weather experts have linked the worsening monsoon cycles to climate change, which has intensified rainfall patterns across South Asia. Pakistan’s 2022 floods, which killed 1,739 people and inundated a third of the country, remain a stark reminder of the risks.“This year’s rains again raise fears of a repeat of 2022,” one NDMA official told AP. “Preparedness is better now, but the scale of flooding across borders is beyond what any one country can manage.”
Relief and uncertainty ahead
Authorities in Punjab (Pakistan) said evacuations were still underway in flood-prone districts, including Kasur and Bahawalnagar, where more than 100,000 residents have already been moved to safety. Relief camps are being equipped with food, medicine and sanitation facilities, though officials warned resources were under strain.The NDMA has urged citizens to stay away from rivers, avoid unnecessary travel and follow alerts issued via mobile phones and disaster apps.Despite the precautionary measures, fears linger that new dam discharges combined with ongoing monsoon rains could worsen the flooding. Officials described the situation as “volatile,” stressing that the coming days would determine whether the crisis deepens or stabilizes.As evacuations stretch into their fifth day, both Pakistan and India remain locked in parallel battles against nature’s fury, even as political distrust overshadows potential cooperation.“This is a humanitarian crisis above politics,” one Pakistani disaster official said. “But the reality is that politics is never far from the waters that flow between us.”(With inputs from Reuters and Associated Press)
