When the College of Cardinals gathers beneath the frescoed ceiling of the Sistine Chapel on May 7, all eyes will be on the white smoke. But beyond the Vatican’s walls, eyes are also on the odds.
For more than six centuries, betting on the papacy has been a strange, enduring tradition. While modern sportsbooks like FanDuel won’t take your wager on the next Holy Father, British and European oddsmakers are laying lines, some dead serious, others playfully irreverent.
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin currently leads the pack at 9/4 odds, closely followed by the “Asian Francis,” Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, at 3/1. Ghanian Cardinal Peter Turkson and Italian Matteo Zuppi trail at 6/1, according to William Hill.
“People bet on everything, football, elections, celebrity divorces. Why not popes?” said Bill Ordine, a gambling analyst and author, as quoted by US Today. “It’s harder than predicting the NFL draft. You’re basically throwing darts in the dark.”
That hasn’t stopped punters. Wagers are being placed not just on who will ascend to St. Peter’s throne, but also on what name the next pope will choose, and whether he will hail from a nation that has never had a pontiff before—currently the bookmakers’ favorite scenario at 60% odds.
Candidate highlights-
Pietro Parolin (Italy): Currently the Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin is considered the frontrunner due to his extensive diplomatic experience and close ties within the Roman Curia.
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Dubbed the “Asian Francis,” Tagle is known for his pastoral approach and could become the first Asian pope in history.
Matteo Zuppi (Italy): The Archbishop of Bologna, Zuppi is seen as a bridge-builder between progressive and conservative factions within the Church.
Peter Turkson (Ghana): A prominent voice on social justice issues, Turkson would be the first African pope in over a millennium.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Israel): As the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa brings a unique perspective from the Holy Land.
While gambling on religious matters might seem sacrilegious to some, the Church has a long, complicated history with it. In the 1500s, cardinals were rumored to profit off bets via insider tips. Pope Gregory XIV even issued an edict in 1591 threatening excommunication for betting on papal elections. That ban was quietly lifted in 1918.
Today, the activity remains mostly underground in the US, thanks to regulations that prohibit betting on non-sporting events. But in places like the UK and Ireland, where Irish bookmaker Paddy Power once called papal betting “the biggest non-sports market of all time”—it’s game on.
In 2013, bettors were blindsided when Argentina’s Jorge Mario Bergoglio, a 33/1 longshot, emerged as Pope Francis. Could a dark horse shock the world again?
“History says yes,” said Josh Ashton of Online Betting Guide. “With conclaves, surprises are tradition.”
