Since Barack Obama became the first Black president of the United States — and the patron saint of slightly deracinated global liberals who feel increasingly alienated as global politics lurches right — liberals have been waiting for the next Obama: the Aragorn who will again lead the righteous army and rid America of the evil forces of Sauron.The latest to have that mantle thrust on him is Zohran Mamdani — a reel champion who has borrowed from the Trump playbook, turning authenticity into theatre and populism into performance. As political analyst Ross Barkan noted in a recent profile: “He is, like a young Obama, very compelling, has a great back story. He has a real charm, a way with people. He has great social media, but you need the charm to make the social media work.”Ironically, Mamdani even wrote that he was Black and Asian in his SAT application where he scored 2140 — below the median for Columbia — before going on to study Africana Studies at Bowdoin College. That one slightly clumsy sentence is a neat metaphor for why Mamdani cannot be another Obama. Obama made the system bend to his will. Mamdani, on the other hand, is trying to game a system that still resists seeing someone like him as fully American.The Obama analogy flatters everyone — liberals nostalgic for 2008, Mamdani himself, and commentators desperate for a “narrative.” But it is also wrong, for reasons that have less to do with Mamdani’s talent and more to do with where he is, who he is, and the country he is trying to win.
New York Is Not America
Obama came out of Chicago but ran as the candidate of the United States. His coalition stretched from Black voters in Detroit to white retirees in Florida. His Yes We Can message resonated across demography and geography.Mamdani, by contrast, is the frontrunner to run a very specific city — post-pandemic, Trump-era New York. His campaign is built on an affordability crisis that is genuinely apocalyptic here: freeze the rent on nearly a million rent-stabilised apartments, make buses free, promise universal childcare funded by higher taxes on the rich.That programme speaks directly to tenants in Queens, overworked parents in Brooklyn and young professionals wondering why they need three roommates and a side hustle just to afford groceries. It does not automatically speak to a homeowner in Arizona whose mortgage is fixed and whose main worry is crime and gas prices.New York’s electorate is younger, more immigrant, more secular and far more accustomed to left-of-centre rhetoric than the rest of America, which just rehired Donald Trump and JD Vance after a campaign powered by a visible rightward shift.Obama’s genius was to make Chicago feel like a metaphor for America. Mamdani’s politics are aggressively, proudly local. That works brilliantly for Gracie Mansion. It is not a dry run for the White House.Read: Why some liberals think Mamdani is the new Obama
Nepo Baby vs Outsider
For all his outsider rhetoric, Zohran Mamdani is not the self-made underdog that Barack Obama was. Obama’s rise from a single mother’s son in Hawaii to the first Black president was powered by intellect, discipline and rhetorical grace. Mamdani, by contrast, was born into Manhattan’s liberal intelligentsia: the son of Oscar-nominated filmmaker Mira Nair and scholar Mahmood Mamdani. He grew up surrounded by art, activism and academia — the politics of someone who can afford to play with fire without being burned by it. Obama adapted to the establishment before being adopted by it; Mamdani was born into it.
The Identity-Box Gamble vs a Real Constituency
Mamdani’s Columbia application, where he ticked both “Asian” and “Black,” has become a symbol of how different his relationship to race is from Obama’s. Critics spun this as a teenager’s attempt to find the least-hostile category in a hostile system. Strip away the outrage and you’re left with something more telling.Obama was Black in the way America understands Blackness — a Black man in a Black church on the South Side of Chicago, married to a Black woman, rooted in a historically oppressed constituency. That did not make his life easy, but it made his claim to represent Black America undeniable.Mamdani, born in Uganda to Indian parents and raised in New York, is something else: East African, South Asian, Muslim, cosmopolitan. His attempt, at 17, to tick every box that might approximate that messiness has now been retrofitted into a morality play about elite hypocrisy. Obama’s identity anchored him to a massive, motivated voting bloc. Mamdani’s identity is an essay question that can be — and is being — pulled apart on cable news.
Obama Was a Moderate; Mamdani Is Not
Obama ran on “hope and change,” but his agenda was packaged as pragmatic and centrist. He annoyed the left almost as much as the right.Mamdani is not selling technocracy. He is an open democratic socialist who talks about rent freezes, public housing, free buses and taxing the rich, rooted in years of movement work around foreclosure, taxi debt and Palestine activism. He went from campus protests to a 45-day taxi strike.This is not “Obama 2008 but browner.” It’s Bernie with a Spotify playlist.Since Obama’s victory, the centre of American politics has shifted right. Trump’s 2024 win over Kamala Harris was powered by gains among Latino, Asian and even some Black voters. Obama surfed a liberalising wave. Mamdani is trying to swim against a conservative tide — a very different current.
The Kamala Harris Cautionary Tale
If you want proof that America is not in the mood to manufacture another Obama, look at Kamala Harris.On paper, she was the sequel: Black and South Asian, prosecutor turned progressive, the first woman and first Asian-American vice president, then the Democratic nominee against Trump in 2024. She had Obama’s blessing, Biden’s incumbency and the full strength of the Democratic armada. She still lost, as Trump improved his margins across demographics and sliced into Democratic strongholds.Harris’s identity and moderate progressivism were not enough to withstand a right-leaning electorate furious about inflation, immigration and culture wars. If a former vice president with the full weight of the party behind her cannot replay the Obama script, the idea that a Muslim socialist mayor from Queens will do so in a harsher climate starts to look like fan fiction.
Islam, Socialism and the American Ceiling
Obama’s middle name was Hussein, and the right still tried to turn him into a secret Muslim. His project was to reassure white America that he was safe, respectable and Christian. Even then, the birther conspiracy lasted years.Mamdani does not have that luxury. He is openly Muslim, prays, and refuses to sandpaper that identity down. He is also explicitly socialist. In an America shaped by 9/11, Gaza and Trump, that is a double burden in national politics.In New York, a critical mass of voters hears “Muslim socialist” and thinks: finally, someone speaking to tenants and immigrants. In most of America, it still sounds like the villain in a Homeland reboot.Obama faced racism and hysteria but had the armour of moderation and churchgoing normalcy. Mamdani walks into the same minefield wearing a DSA badge and a keffiyeh.
The Israel Factor: New York Exceptionalism
Then there is Israel-Palestine, the issue that has turned Mamdani into a folk hero on the left and a bogeyman for much of organised Jewish America.His record as an anti-Zionist activist is not a footnote. He has defended the phrase “globalise the intifada,” accused Israel of genocide and apartheid, and once said the NYPD boot “has been laced by the IDF.”In New York, this hasn’t destroyed him. Some Orthodox and progressive Jews still support him because they like his housing agenda or stance on policing. The city’s unique mix of anti-Netanyahu liberals and transactional machines gives him enough space to be radioactive on Israel and still viable.That is not the country. In a presidential race, his Israel record would be on loop in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia. A line that energises Brooklyn leftists becomes electoral napalm in suburban synagogues.Obama calibrated his Israel criticism carefully enough to drive Netanyahu mad while keeping AIPAC on side. Mamdani is the opposite: morally consistent from the left, politically lethal outside deep-blue enclaves.
A Movement Candidate, Not a Messiah
None of this is to deny Mamdani’s skill. He has borrowed from the Trump playbook and inverted it: constant social media, viral stunts like diving into the Atlantic in winter to dramatise “freeze the rent,” campaign rallies that feel like concerts, and an army of first-time volunteers who talk about him the way 2008 kids talked about Obama.He’s fused old-school organising with meme-literate aesthetics. In New York, that looks like the future of politics.But he is an organiser who legislates, not a national messiah. His project is to prove that a Muslim socialist can run the capital of capitalism and have the sky remain intact. That’s radical enough; demanding that he also be the next Obama is unfair to him and unserious about America.Obama was a once-in-a-generation convergence of biography, temperament, timing and a country briefly willing to believe in its better angels. Mamdani is the product of a harsher, more polarised era.That is important work. It just isn’t the same story. Zohran Mamdani can be many things — New York’s first Muslim mayor, a proof-of-concept for left urban governance, even a future senator. But he cannot be another Obama, because there are no more Obamas to be had. The age of liberal messiahs is over; the age of contested mayors with messy SAT forms and even messier coalitions has begun.Barack Obama was, like Bill Clinton before him, a spanner in the works, upsetting the applecart. He rose up to his level through grit, gumption, and intellect, not to mention remarkable oratory skills. He has the kind of voice that would make Morgan Freeman jealous, a promise of assurance even in the deadliest of storms. And yet, he became the reason that the Democratic party finds himself at the crossroads. But his rise inevitably created Trump’s. And at this moment, assuming ceteris paribus, which is always a faulty thing to assume, it seems quite unlikely that Zohran Mamdani is messiah the Democrats need or deserve right now.
