Grocery stores in the US are absorbing the rising cost of turkeys this Thanksgiving. A spike in bird flu cases has pushed up wholesale prices, according to new data from the US department of agriculture (USDA). But these higher costs are not being passed on to shoppers. USDA figures show that advertised turkey prices in supermarkets are roughly the same as last year. Experts say stores are taking the hit to keep customers coming in, reported NBC News. Even the projected cost of a full Thanksgiving meal has stayed broadly steady. The main reason for the higher costs is a drop in supply. Bird flu has spread again among commercial poultry farms this autumn. By October, more than 2 million turkeys had been culled after exposure. Minnesota, the largest turkey-producing state, reported six confirmed outbreaks that month. David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, told NBC, another virus avian metapneumovirus is also affecting production by reducing the number of viable eggs laid by hens. This has slowed farmers’ efforts to rebuild their flocks.
Overall, turkey supply is tightening. The USDA expects production to fall to 4.8 million pounds this year, down from 5.1 million pounds in 2024. This shortage has pushed up costs for retailers. USDA data shows the wholesale price of frozen turkeys, the type most families buy for Thanksgiving, has jumped by about 80% since last year, rising from under $1 per pound to more than $1.70. A separate USDA report shows retail prices for frozen turkeys staying flat. Ortega said shops may be absorbing these increases to stop customers from switching stores. Retailers often use turkeys as a “loss leader”, selling them at or below cost to draw in shoppers and make up the difference through other items in their baskets. While turkey prices have stayed stable for shoppers, the overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal varies depending on the data source. Some estimates show prices rising by nearly 10%, while others show a fall of up to 5%.
