NEW DELHI: A US intelligence assessment report has painted a sobering picture of Pakistan’s military ambitions for the coming year, highlighting a continued focus on nuclear modernization, cross-border tensions given that it gets consistent economic and military support from China. The report titled ‘2025 World Threat Assessment’ was prepared after India and Pakistan agreed to cease military operations against each other on May 10, retreating from the possibility of a full-blown war.“During the next year, the Pakistani military’s top priorities are likely to remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbors, rising attacks by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist militants, counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernization. Despite Pakistan’s daily operations during the past year, militants killed more than 2,500 people in Pakistan in 2024,” it said.In response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, the Indian Armed Forces launched missile strikes targeting terrorism-linked infrastructure inside Pakistan. The strikes triggered a sharp escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with both sides engaging in multiple rounds of missile launches, drone operations, loitering munition attacks, and intense artillery shelling from May 7 to May 10.The report also talked about the volatile security situation in South Asia shaped by a complex mix of terrorism, deep-rooted mistrust among neighboring states, and accelerating military and nuclear modernization efforts.
Here are some of the key highlights from the report:
China as primary defense partner: Pakistan heavily relies on China for economic and military support. The two countries conduct several joint military exercises annually, including a new air exercise in November 2024. “Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024,” the report said.“Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. However, terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers who support China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects has emerged as a point of friction between the countries; seven Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan in 2024,” it added.Nuclear modernization and procurement: Pakistan is upgrading its nuclear arsenal while maintaining strict security over its nuclear materials and command-and-control systems. It almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods through foreign suppliers and intermediaries.External affairs minister S Jaishankar had categorically said on Sunday that India would “never give in to nuclear blackmail” referring to the tensions with the neighbouring nation. “India has zero-tolerance for terrorism. India will never give in to nuclear blackmail,” he said.India as a strategic threat: Pakistan continues to view India as an existential threat and is actively pursuing military modernization, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to counter India’s conventional military edge.“Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernization effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage,” it said.Pakistan-Iran relations: In January 2024, Pakistan and Iran exchanged unilateral airstrikes in response to cross-border terror incidents. Both nations have since held high-level meetings aimed at de-escalating tensions.“Pakistan and Iran have taken steps, including high-level meetings, to deescalate tensions after the two countries conducted unilateral airstrikes on each other’s territory in January 2024 in response to cross-border terror attacks,” the report said.
