J. Ann Selzer, the veteran US pollster, announced her departure from her election polling career on Sunday, unveiling plans to transition to other ventures and opportunities following the inaccurate prediction of her pre-election poll in Iowa. The Des Moines Register‘s Iowa Poll showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris ahead of Republican nominee Donald Trump, but Trump won the state by a significant margin.
Selzer had been responsible for the Iowa Poll since 1997. The poll had long been considered a reliable source of Iowa voter sentiment. The final Iowa Poll gave Harris a 3-point lead over Trump before the election. However, the actual election results showed Trump winning by 13 points. Selzer acknowledged the error, calling it a “big miss.”
Despite the recent inaccuracy, the Iowa Poll, established in 1943, has a history of largely accurate predictions. Selzer, considered a leading pollster, oversaw the poll for several presidential elections, with only one instance of incorrectly predicting the winner.
Selzer explained that her decision to retire predates the 2024 election, noting in a Register op-ed, “Over a year ago, I advised the Register I would not renew my contract when it expired in 2024, as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.”
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work,” she added.
The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll will undergo changes after its incorrect prediction of the 2024 presidential election outcome and will continue in a new form.
“Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public,” said Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, the Register’s parent company, as quoted by CNN. “We did not deliver on that promise when we shared the results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election.”
