Kotak Equities expects Vodafone Idea’s revenue to improve 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a marginal rise in average revenue per user (ARPU), even as subscriber attrition continues. The brokerage models a 1 million decline in end-of-period subscribers to around 196.7 million, while ARPU could increase to Rs 169 per month, aided by tariff adjustments and one extra day in the quarter.
Nuvama also sees revenue growth of just 0.5% QoQ, supported by modest ARPU expansion but weighed down by a shrinking user base. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to stay flat sequentially. “Key monitorables include progress on 5G rollout, fund-raise plans, and updates on the AGR plea,” the brokerage noted.
Operating performance likely steady
UBS expects a weak Q2FY26 for the telco in the absence of price hikes and continued subscriber losses. It estimates revenue and EBITDA growth of 2.1% and 4.2% YoY, respectively, with sequential growth of 1.2% and 2.8%. UBS flagged downside risks to FY26 capex, saying funding constraints could delay expansion. “We will monitor management commentary on fundraising and potential relief measures around AGR or spectrum dues,” it said.
JM Financial projects a 0.8% QoQ revenue rise to Rs 11,100 crore and a marginal 1.1% QoQ increase in reported EBITDA to Rs 4,660 crore. Pre-IND AS EBITDA, which reflects the company’s cash earnings, is likely to rise 0.9% QoQ to Rs 2,200 crore. It expects net subscriber loss to narrow to 0.5 million during the quarter, similar to the previous quarter, with around 1 million additions in mobile broadband (MBB) users aided by ongoing network expansion.
Motilal Oswal also sees subdued momentum, projecting 1% QoQ revenue growth, with the benefit of one extra day offset by continued subscriber base decline. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to contract by 30 bps QoQ to 41.5%. It estimates ARPU to rise modestly to Rs 166, while total subscribers are expected to fall by about 1 million.
Subscriber decline and ARPU trends
Most brokerages expect Vodafone Idea’s ARPU to rise 1-2% QoQ, supported by premiumisation and gradual migration to higher-value plans. However, the ongoing subscriber losses continue to limit the benefit of ARPU growth.
Vi’s ARPU is expected to stand between Rs 166-169, compared to Rs 165 in Q1FY26. The subscriber base could drop by 0.5-1 million users, extending the downward trend as network gaps and delayed 5G rollouts drive churn.
