The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government has sparked celebrations among Syrian refugees in Turkey, as the end of his 24-year rule raises hopes of returning home. In Kilis, a Turkish border city, large crowds waved Syrian and Turkish flags in jubilation on Sunday.
Refugees eye a return home
Hatay province, another region along the Turkish-Syrian border, also saw emotional gatherings. Refugees expressed a collective desire to rebuild their lives in Syria. “We are free now, everyone should return to their homeland,” Mahmud Esma told the DHA news agency at the Cilvegozu border gate.
Turkey, which hosts approximately 3 million Syrian refugees, has supported opposition groups since the civil war began in 2011. This backing aligns with Ankara’s long-term goal of stabilizing its southern borders and pushing back Kurdish forces linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Turkey’s sworn enemy.
Turkey’s complex role
While Turkish officials deny direct involvement in the rebel offensive, analysts suggest that the operation could not have succeeded without Ankara’s tacit approval. “All statements that claim Turkey provoked or supported this are untrue. They are all lies,” Omer Celik, spokesperson for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party, said.
Turkey has long operated alongside the Syrian National Army, its proxy force, and reportedly exerts influence over Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group leading the 10-day march on Damascus. HTS is listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey but has cooperated with Ankara in northern Syria.
Speaking in Qatar, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reaffirmed Turkey’s support for Syria’s unity and the well-being of its people. “Thereby millions of Syrians who were forced to leave their homes can return to their land,” he said.
Risks and challenges
The downfall of Assad’s government brings potential risks, including the possibility of a new refugee wave if chaos ensues. Turkey’s immediate focus, according to Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, is to avoid Syria’s territorial disintegration.
“The first risk Turkey would want to avoid at all costs is the fragmentation of Syria into autonomous regions,” Ulgen said, emphasizing concerns over the PKK-linked Kurdish militias, such as the YPG, which dominate northeast Syria.
Turkey’s balancing act with global powers also comes into play. While Russia, a key Assad ally, has not accused Turkey of stoking the offensive, analysts believe this reflects Moscow’s effort to maintain its strategic ties with Ankara. “I don’t think this creates a breaking point in Turkey-Russian relations,” Ulgen added.
Uncertain future
Turkey’s strategic objectives—securing its borders and ensuring the safe return of refugees—remain a priority. However, the role of HTS, a group with its own agenda, complicates matters. “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey really want a jihadist organization to be running a neighboring country?” Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Program, questioned.
As Syrian refugees celebrate their first glimpse of hope in years, the path ahead for both Syria and Turkey is fraught with uncertainties. The question remains: will this turning point bring lasting stability or new challenges?
