Ecuador’s president wants to change his country’s constitution, and Ecuadorians will get to say whether they agree in a referendum this weekend.To be held on November 16, the vote will decide whether a nearly 20-year constitutional clause banning foreign militaries from having a presence in the country is repealed.Surveys by the Cedatos polling firm suggest nearly two-thirds of the country is supportive of the change. If passed, it would allow the US to occupy bases on Ecuador’s Pacific coastline.For Ecuador, it would strengthen ties to the US and potentially improve efforts to fight local violence. For the Trump Administration, it would be a boon for its campaign against drug trafficking networks across the region, which has seen nearly two-dozen military strikes on purported drug vessels in South and Central American waters.Ecuador’s president, Daniel Noboa, has already hosted US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem ahead of the vote, with the pair touring former US military sites in the coastal towns of Manta and Salinas now used by Ecuador’s military. A third site in the Galapagos Islands has been ruled out by Noboa. Manta was the operational hub for US interception activities until 2008. US forces departed that year following the recasting of the constitution by former leader Rafael Correa, which barred foreign military presence.“The reason for the base in Manta was to allow, basically, US surveillance planes to patrol those waters,” said Evan Ellis, a Latin America Research Professor at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. “So you could do a more effective job on interdiction of the drug boats that were going in the eastern Pacific.“Without that, the US was forced to shift to other locations [outside of Ecuador].”US return could affect Ecuador’s domestic securityEcuador was once considered one of South America’s more peaceful countries, even though it had long been an important transit point for cocaine and cocaine derivatives from Colombia and Peru.During his presidency from 2007 to 2017 and particularly after 2012, Correa took stronger action against drug gangs, as well as corruption within Ecuador’s security forces, according to investigative portal InsightCrimeCritics, however, accuse Correa of having made deals with the drugs mafia. What is certain is that the country’s annual murder rate dropped to historic lows in subsequent years according to Ecuador’s statistical office.However, towards the end of the decade, violence increased dramatically. In 2023, more than 8,000 people were murdered in Ecuador – seven times as many as in 2019.Ellis says that Correa’s constitutional restrictions deprived the security forces of the ability to combat cross-border crime: “The security forces were dramatically underfinanced, and they lacked capabilities because Ecuador had always been a relatively peaceful, low-violence country,” Ellis said. After Correa, Ecuador’s heads of state did re-engage the US in security partnerships. Yet only since Noboa taking office in late 2023 and Donald Trump’s inauguration in early 2025, the two nations have moved closer again.Indeed, the growing drug and crime issue and a “wartime” campaign platform against gangs and local violence spurred Noboa’s reelection earlier this year against a popular left-wing rival, Luisa Gonzalez.Now, it appears likely Ecuadorians will reverse the constitutional course. “The toll of organized crime is changing public opinion,” said Benjamin Gedan, Director of the Latin American Program at the Stimson Center, US.“Recent surveys show surprising support for US strikes against alleged drug runners in the Caribbean and the Pacific.“Ecuadorians are largely pro-American, use the US dollar, and recognize that their security services are inexperienced and outgunned.”Noboa’s government has indicated that local police and security forces would be upskilled by US expertise if the vote passes.Ecuador could be vital partner in Trump’s drug crusadeSince September, about 20 US strikes on boats in international waters have led to more than 76 deaths.The Trump Administration alleges these boats, mostly Venezuelan, are involved in illegal drug shipments. But it hasn’t offered proof despite calls from Latin American governments, the UN and human rights observers.The US strikes have shaken the region and show little sign of abating. This week, its largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in regional waters.Trump’s primary target has been the Maduro regime in Venezuela, widely seen by governments across the Americas as illegitimate following two disputed elections, including one last year.But while Venezuela is unpopular with its neighbors, not everyone is happy with the US.Trump has grown publicly frustrated with Colombia, and said that President Gustavo Petro’s recent efforts to rein in illegal drug production had not gone far enough. The relationship further deteriorated this week when Petro, in response to the drug strikes, which he said have claimed innocent lives, suspended intelligence sharing with the US.But while the drug operation of the US military is unpopular with Colombia’s government, Ecuador appears open to the prospect of change, even if only as a response to address domestic crime issues. “Would a reopened US base solve the problem? No,” said Gedan. “Above all, Ecuador needs to rid its police and judicial system of corruption and find ways to stop money laundering and dismantle sophisticated criminal groups.“But given the terrible cost of violent crime, it is no surprise that Ecuadorians, for now, would settle for US fighter jets and drones blowing up bad guys at sea.”
