As tensions across the Middle East continue to escalate, attention is gradually shifting beyond the Strait of Hormuz to another highly strategic maritime chokepoint -the Bab al-Mandab Strait.Iran, through its allies in Yemen, is considering this narrow sea passage as a possible pressure point against its adversaries, according to Iranian state-linked media outlet Tasnim. This has raised concerns that the conflict could expand into global shipping lanes and disrupt the movement of oil and goods through one of the world’s busiest trade routes.The renewed focus on the Bab al-Mandab comes amid a broader escalation in regional conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States. Tehran’s partners in Yemen, the Houthi movement, could potentially target or disrupt maritime traffic through the strait if hostilities continue to intensify, according to Gulf News.This development is taking place at a time when Iran has suspended indirect talks with the United States, citing ongoing Israeli military operations in the region. The widening scope of conflict has increased fears that the crisis may extend beyond traditional battlefronts into critical global trade routes.
Why Bab al-Mandab is strategically important
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is one of the most important maritime chokepoints in the world. Located between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, it connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and provides direct access to the Suez Canal, which is a vital artery for global trade between Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
A significant share of global energy shipments, including oil and liquefied natural gas, passes through this narrow waterway. Estimates suggest that around 4 to 7 million barrels of petroleum products transit through it each day, while a substantial portion of global maritime trade depends on its uninterrupted flow. Any disruption here would force shipping routes to detour around Africa, sharply increasing costs, delivery times and insurance premiums.
Iran’s strategic calculus
Although Iran does not share a border with the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it maintains close ties with the Houthi movement in Yemen. This relationship has allowed Tehran to project influence across key maritime corridors without direct military engagement.Analysts believe that Iran’s approach increasingly relies on indirect pressure through allied groups to create strategic uncertainty in global shipping lanes. In this context, Bab al-Mandab is being viewed alongside the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader network of leverage points that can be used during periods of heightened confrontation with Israel and the United States.The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical oil transit route, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. However, repeated tensions in recent years have demonstrated how quickly this corridor can become vulnerable during conflict.Against this backdrop, Bab al-Mandab is emerging as a secondary but equally significant pressure point. If both routes were to face disruption simultaneously, the impact on global energy markets and trade flows would be severe, with far-reaching economic consequences.
Role of the Houthis and previous attacks
The Houthi movement, which is aligned with Iran, has already demonstrated its capacity to disrupt maritime security in the Red Sea. During the Gaza conflict, the group launched repeated attacks on commercial vessels it linked to Israel and its allies, forcing shipping companies to alter routes and avoid high-risk zones.While the Bab al-Mandab Strait itself has not been fully blocked, the threat environment in the surrounding waters has already altered global shipping behaviour. Many vessels were forced to take longer routes around the southern tip of Africa, significantly increasing operational costs.
Wider regional escalation
The maritime risk is unfolding alongside intensifying conflict on multiple regional fronts. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has expanded, with both sides increasing military operations despite ongoing diplomatic efforts to contain the violence.Iran has warned that continued Israeli military action could trigger broader regional responses, linking developments in Lebanon and Gaza to wider strategic consequences. This has raised concerns that maritime corridors such as Bab al-Mandab could become part of a broader escalation strategy.Any disruption to the Bab al-Mandab Strait would have immediate global consequences. Energy prices could rise sharply as markets react to reduced supply security, while shipping and insurance costs would likely increase due to heightened risk premiums.
Global supply chains, already under strain from previous Red Sea disruptions, could face renewed delays and inefficiencies. Even temporary instability in this corridor would have a ripple effect on inflation and trade flows across multiple regions.Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states depend heavily on Red Sea access for exporting energy products. Reports suggest that regional governments are closely monitoring developments, concerned that any expansion of the conflict could expose additional vulnerabilities in their export routes.At the same time, diplomatic efforts continue behind the scenes to prevent escalation, particularly as global energy stability remains closely tied to uninterrupted maritime trade through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab.While there is currently no confirmed plan to close or block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, its strategic importance highlights the expanding geographical scope of the Middle East conflict.
