The data included last Friday’s Juneteenth public holiday, which could have contributed to part of the larger-than-expected decline. Claims are typically more complicated from the end of May through June when the school year ends, as some states allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during the long school holidays. Seasonal factors, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data, do not always capture these moves. Though claims have been hovering in the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for this year, there has been no material shift in the labor market, which has regained its footing after stumbling last year.
There have been no signs of employers resorting to widespread layoffs in response to surging costs stoked by the U.S.-led war with Iran. Companies, however, remain cautious about hiring. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.821 million during the week ended June 13, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June’s unemployment rate.
The jobless rate has held at 4.3% for three straight months. Still, the lack of strong hiring has left many out-of-work people enduring long spells of unemployment. Recent college graduates are also having a hard time finding entry-level positions, a trend partly blamed on companies deploying artificial intelligence for some of these roles.
The median duration of unemployment jumped to 11.6 weeks in May, the longest stretch since November 2021, from 11.0 weeks in April, the government reported this month.
