The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today said that conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, thus marking the end of its four-month journey over the Indian mainland.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, 2026,” the IMD said in a statement.
The monsoon that enters India through the Kerala coast crosses the mainland in the subsequent four months before withdrawing from the far western parts of Rajasthan.
As per the Met department, the monsoon so far, from June 1 to September 13, has been 15 per cent below normal, with southern peninsular India leading the shortfall with 28 per cent below-normal rains during June 1 to September 13, followed closely by East and North-East India at 25 per cent below-normal rains.
The southwest monsoon this year started on a sedate note, with the monsoon being almost 36.5 per cent lower than normal in June 2026. The weak start to the season disrupted sowing of kharif crops, which recorded an almost 21 per cent shortfall in area covered till the end of June as compared to the same period last year.
However, thereafter, the rains picked up pace in the subsequent months of July and August, which helped narrow the cumulative all-India deficit to below 15 per cent.
The southwest monsoon in July was, in fact, one per cent above normal on a cumulative all-India average.
The rains recovered somewhat in July and August after a rather weak run in June, but the long breaks in some parts have kept the overall shortfall at close to 15 per cent so far, with regional variations ranging from 0-35 per cent.
The sowing of kharif crops, which was languishing till the end of June, also picked up strong pace in the subsequent months of July and August. Acreage of all crops together till September 11 was around 1.45 per cent lower than last year and 0.72 per cent less than the normal acreage, which is the average area covered during the last five years.
When it comes to granular details, data showed that till September 11, the acreage under rice, cotton, maize and moong was significantly lower than the area coverage during that period in the preceding five years. It is these crops where inflationary pressure can first build up, barring rice, where the Centre is sitting on ample stocks that it could use to keep prices under check.
When it comes to water levels in the reservoirs, which is an important yardstick to determine how the next rabi crop could perform in some places.
Data sourced from the Central Water Commission shows that till September 3, total water levels in the 178-odd reservoirs monitored in the country were close to 129.87 billion cubic metres (BCM), which is lower than last year’s level of 159.18 BCM and even lower than the average level of the last 10 years, which is 134.233 BCM. Reservoirs in southern India, which has seen the least amount of rain this season, are among the worst sufferers.
