India’s organised apparel retailers are likely to see revenue growth moderate to 12-13% this fiscal from around 15% last year as consumers spread discretionary spending across more categories, though as value fashion, branded apparel, and expansion beyond large cities keep the sector on a healthy growth track, according to Crisil Ratings.
The pressure is expected to be more pronounced on profitability. Rising cotton prices and elevated operating costs are likely to be only partly passed on to consumers amid intense competition, squeezing operating margins by about 100 basis points to around 14% this fiscal. An analysis of 41 organised apparel retailers, accounting for about 28% of the organised apparel market, shows that value/fast fashion and mid-premium segments, largely priced below ₹2,500, contribute nearly two-thirds of sector revenue.
“Value fashion has emerged as the key growth driver for organised retailers, growing more than twice as fast as the other segments over the past three fiscals and increasing its share of revenue to 46% from 39%,” said Anuj Sethi, senior director, Crisil Ratings. The shift reflects greater aspirational consumption among price-conscious consumers and wider penetration into smaller cities, he said.
The festive season, which has begun, will be critical, accounting for nearly 35% of annual apparel sales. Revenue growth between April and August has remained in the high single digits but has so far been largely led by value fashion. Physical stores continue to dominate apparel sales despite the growing influence of e-commerce. Online sales account for only about 10% of retail sales, but retailers are increasingly investing in omnichannel capabilities to connect digital and physical shopping. Retailers are also stepping up expansion in tier-II and tier-III cities, where lower store set-up and operating costs require less capital.
