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For nearly three years, Congress has largely avoided taking a definitive call on the Karnataka leadership issue, wary of upsetting either camp.
The Congress government in Karnataka has now completed three years in office, leaving barely two years before the 2028 Assembly elections (PTI file)
The familiar power tussle between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar has once again returned to the centre of Karnataka politics, putting the Congress high command in a difficult spot. Both leaders landed separately in New Delhi on Monday evening, accompanied by their respective camps, ahead of a crucial meeting with the party leadership on Tuesday. While neither Siddaramaiah nor Shivakumar directly addressed speculation around a possible leadership change, the timing of the meeting has intensified political chatter in the state.
The Congress government in Karnataka has now completed three years in office, leaving barely two years before the 2028 Assembly elections. For the party leadership, the question is no longer whether the issue must be resolved, but how long it can continue to postpone a decision without damaging governance and party unity.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge avoided commenting directly on the Karnataka developments. “I cannot comment on this. Rahul Ji will talk about these things,” he said.
When Siddaramaiah was asked about speculation surrounding a leadership change, the Chief Minister brushed it aside, saying, “Speculations are always there.”
However, according to sources quoted by ANI, clarity on the issue could emerge within the next two to three days. Apart from the leadership question, discussions are also expected to cover the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections, Cabinet reshuffle and Legislative Council polls.
What Congress Leaders Are Saying
Several Congress leaders have attempted to publicly downplay signs of factionalism, even as the Delhi meetings triggered intense speculation.
Karnataka minister Priyank Kharge said the Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister were summoned mainly to discuss Rajya Sabha seats and upcoming MLC elections. “We also have a lot of MLC seats opening up in less than 15-20 days. So they will discuss with the high command about that. What is wrong if our leaders, legislators and council members go meet our high command?” he said.
Minister Satish Jarkiholi acknowledged that the Delhi meeting was aimed at resolving issues within the party, while Congress MLC Nagaraju Yadav insisted there were no camps within the state unit.
“We are all working as family members together… The High Command is strong enough to take the appropriate decision at the appropriate time,” he said.
But Karnataka Home Minister G Parameshwara made perhaps the clearest admission yet that the uncertainty is beginning to hurt governance. “I believe there shouldn’t be any political ambiguity in our party. It affects administration. So it is in the interest of the state and the people if it is resolved,” he said.
Three Scenarios Before Congress
As the Congress leadership weighs its options, three broad scenarios appear to be emerging.
1. Status Quo With Cabinet Reshuffle
The first possibility is that Congress maintains Siddaramaiah as Chief Minister while carrying out a major Cabinet reshuffle to balance competing interests within the party. This would help avoid immediate instability but could disappoint Shivakumar’s supporters, many of whom believe he was instrumental in the Congress victory in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections and deserves a chance to lead the government.
2. Shivakumar Takes Over As Chief Minister
The second — and politically boldest — option would be to hand over the Chief Minister’s post to Shivakumar. After Congress returned to power in 2023, there were widespread reports that a power-sharing agreement had been worked out under which Siddaramaiah would serve for the first half of the term before Shivakumar took over after 2.5 years.
Though the party never officially confirmed such an arrangement, Shivakumar’s camp has continued to signal that expectations around the transition remain alive.
3. A Surprise Consensus Candidate
The third possibility is the emergence of a compromise candidate outside the Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar rivalry to break the deadlock.
One name that occasionally resurfaces in political discussions is Mallikarjun Kharge himself, a veteran Dalit leader from Karnataka who was once seen as a chief ministerial contender in the state.
But such a move would create fresh challenges for Congress nationally. Replacing Kharge as party president while simultaneously elevating the 83-year-old leader to state politics could complicate the party’s long-term organisational plans ahead of future battles.
Why This Is A ‘Now Or Never’ Moment For Congress
For nearly three years, the Congress high command has largely avoided taking a definitive call on the Karnataka leadership issue, wary of upsetting either camp. But the continued ambiguity has increasingly become a political burden.
Every few months, statements from MLAs and ministers supporting either Siddaramaiah or Shivakumar reignite speculation, fuelling confusion among party workers and voters alike. The leadership uncertainty has also raised questions about administrative stability in the state.
At the same time, Congress cannot afford to alienate either leader. Shivakumar remains one of the party’s most influential strategists and fundraisers and continues to serve as Karnataka Congress chief while also acting as a troubleshooter for the party in other states.
Siddaramaiah, meanwhile, remains the face of the powerful AHINDA social coalition — Alpasankhyataru (minorities), Hindulidavaru (backward classes) and Dalitaru (Dalits) — which forms a crucial pillar of Congress support in Karnataka. Shivakumar, on the other hand, commands significant influence among the Vokkaliga community, which accounts for roughly 10-15% of the state’s population.
The continued infighting within the Congress was seen as one of the key factors behind the party managing to win only 9 of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections.
With the 2028 Assembly elections approaching, Congress knows it will need both social coalitions intact if it hopes to retain power in Karnataka. The challenge for the high command is to find a formula that satisfies both leaders without weakening the party before the next electoral battle.
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