After an uneven run in June and July, the southwest monsoon is expected to remain below normal during the remaining two months of the 2026 monsoon season (August and September), which could affect standing crops if rainfall distribution is also uneven.
Releasing its outlook for the second half of the 2026 monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that even in August alone, the country is likely to receive below-normal rainfall — less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) — over most parts of the country.
The LPA for August is 254.9 millimetres, while the LPA for August and September combined is 422.8 millimetres, based on the average rainfall recorded during 1971–2020.
“Exceptions could be in parts of Eastern Peninsular India, some parts of Northwest and Central India, and isolated areas of East and Northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” the IMD said. The forecast for August-September combined is also below normal at 94 per cent of the LPA.
In August, the IMD said monthly average maximum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal over most parts of the country. However, some areas of Northwest and Central India, along with isolated regions of the adjoining Southern Peninsula, are likely to experience normal to below-normal monthly average maximum temperatures.
On El Niño, the weather office said moderate conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
“These conditions are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season,” the IMD said.
On the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another factor influencing the southwest monsoon, the IMD said neutral IOD conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean. However, climate forecasts from some international forecasting centres suggest that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during September 2026. Experts said this could have a positive influence on the Indian monsoon.
In July, the IMD said that, contrary to normal expectations, cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall across India was 1 per cent above normal at 280.6 millimetres.
In June and July, the IMD said that, of the 741 districts assessed for monsoon rainfall distribution, 311 (42 per cent) recorded deficient rainfall, the largest category, indicating below-normal rainfall in many parts of the country. Rainfall was normal in 273 districts (around 37 per cent). It was excess in 69 districts (around 9 per cent), while 49 districts (around 7 per cent) recorded large deficiencies. No district across India received zero rainfall during June and July.
“Even though moderate El Niño conditions prevailed over the equatorial Pacific and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevailed over the Indian Ocean, many low-pressure systems formed over the north Bay of Bengal, helping bring good rainfall over east-central and west-central India,” said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
