The race for the IPL 2026 playoffs went down to the wire, with the Rajasthan Royals securing the fourth and final spot on Sunday in the penultimate game of the league phase. The Royals joined Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans, and Sunrisers Hyderabad in the top four. Defending champions RCB will take on GT in Qualifier 1 in Dharamsala on Tuesday, May 26, while SRH and RR are set to square off in a high-stakes Eliminator at Mullanpur on Wednesday. However, if IPL history is to be repeated, the Vaibhav Sooryavanshi-starring Rajasthan side aren’t the ones who will be crowned champions this time.
The loser of Qualifier 1 will face the winner of the Eliminator on Friday, with a coveted place in the Ahmedabad final on the line. However, history is heavily stacked against RR as since the inception of the current playoff format, no team finishing fourth in the league stage has ever gone on to lift the IPL trophy.
Statistically, finishing in the top two remains the golden ticket to championship glory, with a top-two seed producing the eventual champion in the vast majority of seasons.
In fact, teams finishing second have been particularly dominant, just as they were last season when RCB stunned league-leaders Punjab Kings in the final.
As it stands, SRH remain the only franchise in the playoff era to defy the odds and lift the title from outside the top two, a historic feat they achieved from third place back in 2016.
Meanwhile, RR beat MI by 30 runs in the penultimate game of IPL 2026 at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai
RR head coach Kumar Sangakkara praised his bowlers for successfully defending a 205-run total.
“During the last timeout, it was just about sticking to plans and holding your nerve. When you go to the back end, it’s all about who responds better under pressure. All the bowlers did a brilliant job. And on the field, we were pretty tidy.”
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